Ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, including recent strikes on Iranian assets and attacks on tankers near the strait on August 31, has kept commercial traffic severely constrained. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, while mine threats, blacklists, and rerouting incentives have driven visible daily transits to single digits or low teens according to Kpler and UKMTO data, equating to roughly 5–15% of pre-conflict baselines near 130 vessels per day. This environment supports the market-implied 70.5% probability on the 20-39 outcome for the week, reflecting limited but non-zero activity from sanctioned or dark transits amid high uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include any further escalation or de-escalation signals that could shift insurance costs or clearance declarations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20-39 71%
<20 24%
40-59 4.3%
60-79 1.0%
$42,944 Vol.
$42,944 Vol.
2026/09/06
<20
24%
20-39
71%
40-59
4%
60-79
1%
80+
1%
20-39 71%
<20 24%
40-59 4.3%
60-79 1.0%
$42,944 Vol.
$42,944 Vol.
2026/09/06
<20
$11,631 Vol.
24%
20-39
$23,537 Vol.
71%
40-59
$4,503 Vol.
4%
60-79
$1,836 Vol.
1%
80+
$1,437 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, including recent strikes on Iranian assets and attacks on tankers near the strait on August 31, has kept commercial traffic severely constrained. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, while mine threats, blacklists, and rerouting incentives have driven visible daily transits to single digits or low teens according to Kpler and UKMTO data, equating to roughly 5–15% of pre-conflict baselines near 130 vessels per day. This environment supports the market-implied 70.5% probability on the 20-39 outcome for the week, reflecting limited but non-zero activity from sanctioned or dark transits amid high uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include any further escalation or de-escalation signals that could shift insurance costs or clearance declarations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
音量
$42,944終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, including recent strikes on Iranian assets and attacks on tankers near the strait on August 31, has kept commercial traffic severely constrained. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, while mine threats, blacklists, and rerouting incentives have driven visible daily transits to single digits or low teens according to Kpler and UKMTO data, equating to roughly 5–15% of pre-conflict baselines near 130 vessels per day. This environment supports the market-implied 70.5% probability on the 20-39 outcome for the week, reflecting limited but non-zero activity from sanctioned or dark transits amid high uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include any further escalation or de-escalation signals that could shift insurance costs or clearance declarations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$42,944終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, including recent strikes on Iranian assets and attacks on tankers near the strait on August 31, has kept commercial traffic severely constrained. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels, while mine threats, blacklists, and rerouting incentives have driven visible daily transits to single digits or low teens according to Kpler and UKMTO data, equating to roughly 5–15% of pre-conflict baselines near 130 vessels per day. This environment supports the market-implied 70.5% probability on the 20-39 outcome for the week, reflecting limited but non-zero activity from sanctioned or dark transits amid high uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include any further escalation or de-escalation signals that could shift insurance costs or clearance declarations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問