The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
49% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/10
はい
49% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/10
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
マーケット開始日： Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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