Bosnia and Herzegovina’s October 4 parliamentary election for the state House of Representatives remains highly fragmented along ethnic lines, with no party positioned for a clear national plurality. Trader consensus around 44–50% for SDA and SNSD, alongside single-digit odds for DF, HDZ BiH, SDP BiH, SDS, and NiP, reflects persistent uncertainty driven by the collapsed governing coalition, entity-level polarization, and the absence of recent polling shifts that would favor one bloc. Preparations for biometric voting and electronic results add logistical variables, while Republika Srpska’s institutional tensions and Federation turnout patterns continue to shape seat projections. Any late consolidation among Bosniak or Croat parties, or unexpected swings in RS participation, could alter the narrow implied probabilities before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日SDA 80%
SNSD 7%
DF 6%
SDP BiH 5%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
SDA
80%
SNSD
7%
DF
6%
SDP BiH
5%
HDZビH
5%
SDS
4%
NiP
3%
SDA 80%
SNSD 7%
DF 6%
SDP BiH 5%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
SDA
$455 Vol.
80%
SNSD
$448 Vol.
7%
DF
$65 Vol.
6%
SDP BiH
$262 Vol.
5%
HDZビH
$78 Vol.
5%
SDS
$132 Vol.
4%
NiP
$156 Vol.
3%
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).Bosnia and Herzegovina’s October 4 parliamentary election for the state House of Representatives remains highly fragmented along ethnic lines, with no party positioned for a clear national plurality. Trader consensus around 44–50% for SDA and SNSD, alongside single-digit odds for DF, HDZ BiH, SDP BiH, SDS, and NiP, reflects persistent uncertainty driven by the collapsed governing coalition, entity-level polarization, and the absence of recent polling shifts that would favor one bloc. Preparations for biometric voting and electronic results add logistical variables, while Republika Srpska’s institutional tensions and Federation turnout patterns continue to shape seat projections. Any late consolidation among Bosniak or Croat parties, or unexpected swings in RS participation, could alter the narrow implied probabilities before election day.
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 9, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
音量
$1,595終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 6:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).Bosnia and Herzegovina’s October 4 parliamentary election for the state House of Representatives remains highly fragmented along ethnic lines, with no party positioned for a clear national plurality. Trader consensus around 44–50% for SDA and SNSD, alongside single-digit odds for DF, HDZ BiH, SDP BiH, SDS, and NiP, reflects persistent uncertainty driven by the collapsed governing coalition, entity-level polarization, and the absence of recent polling shifts that would favor one bloc. Preparations for biometric voting and electronic results add logistical variables, while Republika Srpska’s institutional tensions and Federation turnout patterns continue to shape seat projections. Any late consolidation among Bosniak or Croat parties, or unexpected swings in RS participation, could alter the narrow implied probabilities before election day.
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
音量
$1,595終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 6:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Bosnia and Herzegovina’s October 4 parliamentary election for the state House of Representatives remains highly fragmented along ethnic lines, with no party positioned for a clear national plurality. Trader consensus around 44–50% for SDA and SNSD, alongside single-digit odds for DF, HDZ BiH, SDP BiH, SDS, and NiP, reflects persistent uncertainty driven by the collapsed governing coalition, entity-level polarization, and the absence of recent polling shifts that would favor one bloc. Preparations for biometric voting and electronic results add logistical variables, while Republika Srpska’s institutional tensions and Federation turnout patterns continue to shape seat projections. Any late consolidation among Bosniak or Croat parties, or unexpected swings in RS participation, could alter the narrow implied probabilities before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問