Apple’s confirmed “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, at Apple Park drives the 95.5% market-implied probability that a foldable iPhone will be announced. Multiple credible reports, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, detail a book-style device expected under the iPhone Ultra name, featuring a roughly 5.3–5.5-inch outer display and 7.6–7.8-inch inner OLED with minimized crease, titanium frame, and side-button Touch ID. Supply-chain progress, iOS 27 multitasking hints, and the absence of a standard iPhone 18 model further align expectations for this debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup under incoming CEO John Ternus. While last-minute program shifts remain theoretically possible, the official invitation and consistent pre-event reporting leave little room for deviation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
96% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/09
はい
96% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/09
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, at Apple Park drives the 95.5% market-implied probability that a foldable iPhone will be announced. Multiple credible reports, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, detail a book-style device expected under the iPhone Ultra name, featuring a roughly 5.3–5.5-inch outer display and 7.6–7.8-inch inner OLED with minimized crease, titanium frame, and side-button Touch ID. Supply-chain progress, iOS 27 multitasking hints, and the absence of a standard iPhone 18 model further align expectations for this debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup under incoming CEO John Ternus. While last-minute program shifts remain theoretically possible, the official invitation and consistent pre-event reporting leave little room for deviation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
音量
$9,350終了日
2026/09/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, at Apple Park drives the 95.5% market-implied probability that a foldable iPhone will be announced. Multiple credible reports, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, detail a book-style device expected under the iPhone Ultra name, featuring a roughly 5.3–5.5-inch outer display and 7.6–7.8-inch inner OLED with minimized crease, titanium frame, and side-button Touch ID. Supply-chain progress, iOS 27 multitasking hints, and the absence of a standard iPhone 18 model further align expectations for this debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup under incoming CEO John Ternus. While last-minute program shifts remain theoretically possible, the official invitation and consistent pre-event reporting leave little room for deviation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release a foldable iPhone during the "Surprise and Shine" event currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the "Surprise and Shine" event will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify.
Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone.
If the "Surprise and Shine" event does not occur by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9,350終了日
2026/09/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s confirmed “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9, 2026, at Apple Park drives the 95.5% market-implied probability that a foldable iPhone will be announced. Multiple credible reports, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, detail a book-style device expected under the iPhone Ultra name, featuring a roughly 5.3–5.5-inch outer display and 7.6–7.8-inch inner OLED with minimized crease, titanium frame, and side-button Touch ID. Supply-chain progress, iOS 27 multitasking hints, and the absence of a standard iPhone 18 model further align expectations for this debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup under incoming CEO John Ternus. While last-minute program shifts remain theoretically possible, the official invitation and consistent pre-event reporting leave little room for deviation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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