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icon for Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?
Politica·Presidente

Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?

icon for Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?
Politica·Presidente

Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?

Andy Beshear 29%

Gavin Newsom 20.0%

Pete Buttigieg 15%

Kamala Harris 13%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Andy Beshear 29%

Gavin Newsom 20.0%

Pete Buttigieg 15%

Kamala Harris 13%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Andy Beshear

$1,919 Vol.

29%

Gavin Newsom

$3,746 Vol.

20%

Pete Buttigieg

$622 Vol.

15%

Kamala Harris

$550 Vol.

13%

Rahm Emanuel

$687 Vol.

10%

Ro Khanna

$556 Vol.

10%

Stephen A. Smith

$363 Vol.

5%

Josh Shapiro

$306 Vol.

4%

Jon Ossoff

$306 Vol.

2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$391 Vol.

1%

Jon Stewart

$369 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open field for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with no formal announcements as of early September 2026, positions "Other" at the top of trader consensus because candidates are expected to wait until after the November midterms before declaring. Andy Beshear leads listed names due to his profile as a red-state governor with strong fundraising and travel to early primary states like South Carolina, combined with repeated signals that he is considering a bid once his Democratic Governors Association role ends. Gavin Newsom follows from his high visibility in opposing the Trump administration, memoir rollout, and visits to key early states. Pete Buttigieg's recent podcast comments indicating he is "more inclined than not" to run, alongside favorable polling in some surveys, support his share, while Kamala Harris's name recognition is offset by lower support in recent early-state polling. The new DNC primary calendar emphasizing South Carolina and Nevada further shapes early positioning without yet producing declarations.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,815
Data di fine
1 gen 2029
Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open field for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with no formal announcements as of early September 2026, positions "Other" at the top of trader consensus because candidates are expected to wait until after the November midterms before declaring. Andy Beshear leads listed names due to his profile as a red-state governor with strong fundraising and travel to early primary states like South Carolina, combined with repeated signals that he is considering a bid once his Democratic Governors Association role ends. Gavin Newsom follows from his high visibility in opposing the Trump administration, memoir rollout, and visits to key early states. Pete Buttigieg's recent podcast comments indicating he is "more inclined than not" to run, alongside favorable polling in some surveys, support his share, while Kamala Harris's name recognition is offset by lower support in recent early-state polling. The new DNC primary calendar emphasizing South Carolina and Nevada further shapes early positioning without yet producing declarations.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,815
Data di fine
1 gen 2029
Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

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Domande frequenti

"Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 11 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Andy Beshear" a 28%, seguito da "Gavin Newsom" a 20%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 28¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jul 9, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?", esplora i 11 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?" è "Andy Beshear" a 28%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Gavin Newsom" a 20%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quale di questi democratici sarà il primo ad annunciare una corsa alla presidenza?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.