Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies over northern Italy have promoted overnight radiative cooling in the Po Valley, supporting model consensus for an early-morning minimum near 18 °C at Milan stations on 30 August 2026. Recent ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS show dew points around 15–17 °C with light winds under 5 km/h, limiting mixing and allowing temperatures to settle at or just above this level before sunrise. Urban heat-island effects and a modest warm-air advection from the southwest introduce modest uncertainty, yet current observations and short-range guidance keep deviations below 18 °C unlikely before the market resolves. Traders’ overwhelming 95.5 % implied probability on 18 °C reflects this tight forecast range, with only low-probability scenarios such as stronger nocturnal winds or unmodeled cloud cover able to push the official minimum noticeably higher or lower.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Milano il 30 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Milano il 30 agosto?
18°C 96%
14°C or below 9%
16°C 2%
17°C 2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ago 2026
14°C or below
9%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
96%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 96%
14°C or below 9%
16°C 2%
17°C 2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ago 2026
14°C or below
$12 Vol.
9%
15°C
$39 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$169 Vol.
2%
17°C
$137 Vol.
2%
18°C
$704 Vol.
96%
19°C
$98 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies over northern Italy have promoted overnight radiative cooling in the Po Valley, supporting model consensus for an early-morning minimum near 18 °C at Milan stations on 30 August 2026. Recent ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS show dew points around 15–17 °C with light winds under 5 km/h, limiting mixing and allowing temperatures to settle at or just above this level before sunrise. Urban heat-island effects and a modest warm-air advection from the southwest introduce modest uncertainty, yet current observations and short-range guidance keep deviations below 18 °C unlikely before the market resolves. Traders’ overwhelming 95.5 % implied probability on 18 °C reflects this tight forecast range, with only low-probability scenarios such as stronger nocturnal winds or unmodeled cloud cover able to push the official minimum noticeably higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,291Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies over northern Italy have promoted overnight radiative cooling in the Po Valley, supporting model consensus for an early-morning minimum near 18 °C at Milan stations on 30 August 2026. Recent ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS show dew points around 15–17 °C with light winds under 5 km/h, limiting mixing and allowing temperatures to settle at or just above this level before sunrise. Urban heat-island effects and a modest warm-air advection from the southwest introduce modest uncertainty, yet current observations and short-range guidance keep deviations below 18 °C unlikely before the market resolves. Traders’ overwhelming 95.5 % implied probability on 18 °C reflects this tight forecast range, with only low-probability scenarios such as stronger nocturnal winds or unmodeled cloud cover able to push the official minimum noticeably higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,291Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies over northern Italy have promoted overnight radiative cooling in the Po Valley, supporting model consensus for an early-morning minimum near 18 °C at Milan stations on 30 August 2026. Recent ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS show dew points around 15–17 °C with light winds under 5 km/h, limiting mixing and allowing temperatures to settle at or just above this level before sunrise. Urban heat-island effects and a modest warm-air advection from the southwest introduce modest uncertainty, yet current observations and short-range guidance keep deviations below 18 °C unlikely before the market resolves. Traders’ overwhelming 95.5 % implied probability on 18 °C reflects this tight forecast range, with only low-probability scenarios such as stronger nocturnal winds or unmodeled cloud cover able to push the official minimum noticeably higher or lower.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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