Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents, including recent tanker strikes and mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz, have suppressed commercial transits to single-digit daily levels, positioning the 20-39 outcome as the market-implied leader at 75%. IMF PortWatch data recorded just six total transits on August 30 against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 per day, with Kpler commodity-vessel counts similarly low around five on August 31 amid Iranian routing mandates, U.S. sanctions escalation, and war-risk premiums at 40 times normal. This environment has kept weekly aggregates firmly below 40 while rendering higher bins improbable absent rapid de-escalation before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 31 agosto?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 31 agosto?
20-39 78%
<20 15%
40-59 5.5%
60-79 <1%
$36,997 Vol.
$36,997 Vol.
6 set 2026
<20
15%
20-39
78%
40-59
5%
60-79
1%
80+
<1%
20-39 78%
<20 15%
40-59 5.5%
60-79 <1%
$36,997 Vol.
$36,997 Vol.
6 set 2026
<20
$8,834 Vol.
15%
20-39
$21,299 Vol.
78%
40-59
$4,215 Vol.
5%
60-79
$1,506 Vol.
1%
80+
$1,142 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents, including recent tanker strikes and mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz, have suppressed commercial transits to single-digit daily levels, positioning the 20-39 outcome as the market-implied leader at 75%. IMF PortWatch data recorded just six total transits on August 30 against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 per day, with Kpler commodity-vessel counts similarly low around five on August 31 amid Iranian routing mandates, U.S. sanctions escalation, and war-risk premiums at 40 times normal. This environment has kept weekly aggregates firmly below 40 while rendering higher bins improbable absent rapid de-escalation before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$36,997Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents, including recent tanker strikes and mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz, have suppressed commercial transits to single-digit daily levels, positioning the 20-39 outcome as the market-implied leader at 75%. IMF PortWatch data recorded just six total transits on August 30 against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 per day, with Kpler commodity-vessel counts similarly low around five on August 31 amid Iranian routing mandates, U.S. sanctions escalation, and war-risk premiums at 40 times normal. This environment has kept weekly aggregates firmly below 40 while rendering higher bins improbable absent rapid de-escalation before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$36,997Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security incidents, including recent tanker strikes and mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz, have suppressed commercial transits to single-digit daily levels, positioning the 20-39 outcome as the market-implied leader at 75%. IMF PortWatch data recorded just six total transits on August 30 against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 per day, with Kpler commodity-vessel counts similarly low around five on August 31 amid Iranian routing mandates, U.S. sanctions escalation, and war-risk premiums at 40 times normal. This environment has kept weekly aggregates firmly below 40 while rendering higher bins improbable absent rapid de-escalation before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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