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icon for Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?
Geopolitica·Olio

Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?

icon for Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?
Geopolitica·Olio

Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?

lug 26

ago 2

ago 9

lug 26

ago 2

ago 9

<200 68%

200-219 24%

220-239 5.9%

240+ 5.0%

Polymarket
NUOVO

<200 68%

200-219 24%

220-239 5.9%

240+ 5.0%

Polymarket
NUOVO

<200

$3,994 Vol.

68%

200-219

$830 Vol.

24%

220-239

$127 Vol.

6%

240+

$159 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in late July 2026, including strikes on refineries and export terminals, sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the 68% market-implied probability on fewer than 200 weekly transits. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to as low as 11 commodity vessels on July 26-27, with averages near 31 amid announced blockades and heightened missile-drone risks, prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This contraction directly pressures VLCC crude flows, elevates war-risk insurance premiums, and tightens global energy supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that persistent security threats will sustain subdued volumes through the resolution period.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$5,109
Data di fine
2 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in late July 2026, including strikes on refineries and export terminals, sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the 68% market-implied probability on fewer than 200 weekly transits. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to as low as 11 commodity vessels on July 26-27, with averages near 31 amid announced blockades and heightened missile-drone risks, prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This contraction directly pressures VLCC crude flows, elevates war-risk insurance premiums, and tightens global energy supply chains, reinforcing trader consensus that persistent security threats will sustain subdued volumes through the resolution period.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$5,109
Data di fine
2 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Correlati

icon for Meno di 180 navi transiteranno attraverso lo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb tra il 3 e il 9 agosto?

Meno di 180 navi transiteranno attraverso lo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb tra il 3 e il 9 agosto?

46%
Sì
icon for Ci saranno tra 28 e 30 transiti medi giornalieri dello stretto di Bab el-Mandeb il 31 luglio?

Ci saranno tra 28 e 30 transiti medi giornalieri dello stretto di Bab el-Mandeb il 31 luglio?

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Sì
icon for Ci saranno tra 30 e 34 transiti medi giornalieri dello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb il 31 agosto?

Ci saranno tra 30 e 34 transiti medi giornalieri dello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb il 31 agosto?

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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "<200" a 68%, seguito da "200-219" a 24%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 68¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 68% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jul 24, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?" è "<200" a 68%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 68% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "200-219" a 24%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 27 luglio?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.