Recent Houthi threats and related security risks in the Red Sea continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship passages fluctuating between 25 and 39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This volatility keeps market-implied odds tightly clustered across the 180–219 and sub-180 ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether partial de-escalation or renewed attacks will dominate the August 3 week. Traders weigh recent Clarksons data showing a 50% tonnage decline against any potential stabilization in vessel scheduling or naval protection measures, with weekly aggregates sensitive to even modest daily swings in bulk carrier and tanker flows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 3 agosto?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Bab el-Mandeb nella settimana del 3 agosto?
<180 45%
180-199 45%
220+ 44%
200-219 42%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ago 2026
<180
45%
180-199
45%
200-219
42%
220+
44%
<180 45%
180-199 45%
220+ 44%
200-219 42%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ago 2026
<180
$0 Vol.
45%
180-199
$0 Vol.
45%
200-219
$0 Vol.
42%
220+
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and related security risks in the Red Sea continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship passages fluctuating between 25 and 39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This volatility keeps market-implied odds tightly clustered across the 180–219 and sub-180 ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether partial de-escalation or renewed attacks will dominate the August 3 week. Traders weigh recent Clarksons data showing a 50% tonnage decline against any potential stabilization in vessel scheduling or naval protection measures, with weekly aggregates sensitive to even modest daily swings in bulk carrier and tanker flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
9 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and related security risks in the Red Sea continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship passages fluctuating between 25 and 39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This volatility keeps market-implied odds tightly clustered across the 180–219 and sub-180 ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether partial de-escalation or renewed attacks will dominate the August 3 week. Traders weigh recent Clarksons data showing a 50% tonnage decline against any potential stabilization in vessel scheduling or naval protection measures, with weekly aggregates sensitive to even modest daily swings in bulk carrier and tanker flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0Data di fine
9 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and related security risks in the Red Sea continue to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship passages fluctuating between 25 and 39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This volatility keeps market-implied odds tightly clustered across the 180–219 and sub-180 ranges, reflecting uncertainty over whether partial de-escalation or renewed attacks will dominate the August 3 week. Traders weigh recent Clarksons data showing a 50% tonnage decline against any potential stabilization in vessel scheduling or naval protection measures, with weekly aggregates sensitive to even modest daily swings in bulk carrier and tanker flows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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