**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds. Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 30 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 30 agosto?
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$28,277 Vol.
$28,277 Vol.
30 ago 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$28,277 Vol.
$28,277 Vol.
30 ago 2026
28°C or below
$1,363 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$500 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,079 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,400 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6,924 Vol.
100%
34°C
$7,158 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,815 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$494 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$1,062 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$191 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds.
Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$28,277Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds.
Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,277Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and consistent numerical weather models underpin the near-certain 33°C outcome.** Clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and strong daytime heating under a stable high-pressure regime are driving maximum temperatures in central Madrid to 32–33°C, with surrounding stations such as Getafe and Aranjuez reaching 33°C. These conditions match the climatological expectation for late August (long-term average high ~30°C) while remaining well below heat-wave thresholds. Real-time observations on 30 August confirm the build-up to these values, with afternoon readings aligning closely with model consensus and showing negligible precipitation risk or cloud interference. The overwhelming market-implied probability (99.7% on 33°C) reflects traders’ assessment that only an improbable late-day shift—such as rapid cloud development or a sharp change in boundary-layer mixing—could alter the daily maximum enough to move resolution outside the narrow 33°C bin. Given the stability of current steering patterns and the advanced stage of the diurnal cycle, such deviations remain highly unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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