**Forecast model consensus points to a sunny, stable high-pressure regime over Beijing on August 31, with light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover favoring peak temperatures near 29–31 °C.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based outlooks and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration, indicate clear skies and highs of 30–31 °C under typical late-summer insolation, consistent with the historical average high of 29 °C for the date. The tight 43.5 % / 35.5 % split between the 30 °C and 31 °C contracts reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise maximum, driven by minor differences in model timing of peak heating, surface moisture, or station-specific readings rather than any evolving synoptic threat. With resolution hinging on the official daily maximum, traders are weighting the most recent model runs showing limited afternoon warming potential above 31 °C.