Traders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
$2,265 Vol.
$2,265 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
99%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
$2,265 Vol.
$2,265 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
$271 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$170 Vol.
2%
11°C
$113 Vol.
99%
12°C
$346 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$349 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$351 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$305 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$205 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,265Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,265Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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