Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models places Austin's August 31 high in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, directly supporting the market's strong weighting on 98-99°F (56%) and 100-101°F (38.5%). Persistent subtropical ridge conditions, high solar insolation typical of late summer, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation probability keep temperatures elevated but capped near seasonal norms around 96-100°F. Recent stability in model runs through the final weekend of August has reinforced this range, with only minor adjustments for heat index effects from humidity. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus aligns closely with these official guidance thresholds, as any late-model shift toward greater cloudiness or stronger mixing could narrow odds toward the lower bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Austin on August 31?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 31?
98-99°F 56%
100-101°F 39%
96-97°F 4%
102-103°F 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
56%
100-101°F
39%
102-103°F
4%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 56%
100-101°F 39%
96-97°F 4%
102-103°F 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
$60 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$88 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$224 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$92 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$135 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$1,483 Vol.
56%
100-101°F
$485 Vol.
39%
102-103°F
$506 Vol.
4%
104-105°F
$118 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$140 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models places Austin's August 31 high in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, directly supporting the market's strong weighting on 98-99°F (56%) and 100-101°F (38.5%). Persistent subtropical ridge conditions, high solar insolation typical of late summer, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation probability keep temperatures elevated but capped near seasonal norms around 96-100°F. Recent stability in model runs through the final weekend of August has reinforced this range, with only minor adjustments for heat index effects from humidity. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus aligns closely with these official guidance thresholds, as any late-model shift toward greater cloudiness or stronger mixing could narrow odds toward the lower bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,472Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models places Austin's August 31 high in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, directly supporting the market's strong weighting on 98-99°F (56%) and 100-101°F (38.5%). Persistent subtropical ridge conditions, high solar insolation typical of late summer, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation probability keep temperatures elevated but capped near seasonal norms around 96-100°F. Recent stability in model runs through the final weekend of August has reinforced this range, with only minor adjustments for heat index effects from humidity. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus aligns closely with these official guidance thresholds, as any late-model shift toward greater cloudiness or stronger mixing could narrow odds toward the lower bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,472Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models places Austin's August 31 high in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, directly supporting the market's strong weighting on 98-99°F (56%) and 100-101°F (38.5%). Persistent subtropical ridge conditions, high solar insolation typical of late summer, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation probability keep temperatures elevated but capped near seasonal norms around 96-100°F. Recent stability in model runs through the final weekend of August has reinforced this range, with only minor adjustments for heat index effects from humidity. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus aligns closely with these official guidance thresholds, as any late-model shift toward greater cloudiness or stronger mixing could narrow odds toward the lower bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan