**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Sao Paulo le 4 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Sao Paulo le 4 septembre ?
15°C 100.0%
13°C ou moins 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,435 Vol.
$2,435 Vol.
4 sept. 2026
13°C ou moins
Non
14°C
Non
15°C
Oui
16°C
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Non
23°C ou plus
Non
15°C 100.0%
13°C ou moins 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,435 Vol.
$2,435 Vol.
4 sept. 2026
13°C ou moins
$50 Vol.
Non
14°C
$59 Vol.
Non
15°C
$535 Vol.
Oui
16°C
$139 Vol.
Non
17°C
$308 Vol.
Non
18°C
$326 Vol.
Non
19°C
$104 Vol.
Non
20°C
$112 Vol.
Non
21°C
$267 Vol.
Non
22°C
$267 Vol.
Non
23°C ou plus
$267 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$2,435Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,435Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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