Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and atmospheric stability, continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification, resulting in five short-lived tropical storms but zero hurricanes through September 5, 2026—the quietest start since 1941 and ACE accumulation roughly 90% below normal. National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate no formation expected in the next seven days, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability of no September hurricane at all. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically occur by early August, yet persistent shear has delayed development, elevating odds for late-month formation around September 21–30 while keeping earlier September probabilities low. Updated model guidance and monitoring of shear trends will influence near-term shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuand le premier ouragan se formera-t-il dans l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Quand le premier ouragan se formera-t-il dans l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026 31%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026 30%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026 24%
1er au 10 septembre 2026 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
10 sept. 2026
1er au 10 septembre 2026
8%
11 septembre au 15 septembre 2026
7%
16 au 20 septembre 2026
7%
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026
31%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026
30%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026
24%
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026 31%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026 30%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026 24%
1er au 10 septembre 2026 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
10 sept. 2026
1er au 10 septembre 2026
$28 Vol.
8%
11 septembre au 15 septembre 2026
$83 Vol.
7%
16 au 20 septembre 2026
$323 Vol.
7%
21 septembre au 25 septembre 2026
$0 Vol.
31%
26 septembre au 30 septembre 2026
$0 Vol.
30%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en septembre 2026
$0 Vol.
24%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and atmospheric stability, continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification, resulting in five short-lived tropical storms but zero hurricanes through September 5, 2026—the quietest start since 1941 and ACE accumulation roughly 90% below normal. National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate no formation expected in the next seven days, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability of no September hurricane at all. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically occur by early August, yet persistent shear has delayed development, elevating odds for late-month formation around September 21–30 while keeping earlier September probabilities low. Updated model guidance and monitoring of shear trends will influence near-term shifts.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$435Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and atmospheric stability, continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification, resulting in five short-lived tropical storms but zero hurricanes through September 5, 2026—the quietest start since 1941 and ACE accumulation roughly 90% below normal. National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate no formation expected in the next seven days, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability of no September hurricane at all. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically occur by early August, yet persistent shear has delayed development, elevating odds for late-month formation around September 21–30 while keeping earlier September probabilities low. Updated model guidance and monitoring of shear trends will influence near-term shifts.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$435Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with elevated vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and atmospheric stability, continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification, resulting in five short-lived tropical storms but zero hurricanes through September 5, 2026—the quietest start since 1941 and ACE accumulation roughly 90% below normal. National Hurricane Center outlooks indicate no formation expected in the next seven days, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability of no September hurricane at all. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically occur by early August, yet persistent shear has delayed development, elevating odds for late-month formation around September 21–30 while keeping earlier September probabilities low. Updated model guidance and monitoring of shear trends will influence near-term shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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