**Forecast models from Météo-France and other agencies currently indicate overnight lows in Paris on August 2 will likely settle at 15–16°C under high-pressure conditions.** These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because they align with the latest ensemble runs showing a stable warm air mass, limited cloud cover, and typical radiative cooling rates for early August. Seasonal climatology supports this range, with historical minimums averaging near 15°C and urban heat-island effects in Paris preventing deeper drops unless stronger advection or clear-sky radiative losses intensify. Recent model updates have reinforced this consensus by maintaining dry, settled weather with only marginal chances of overnight storms that could alter the minimum. Higher temperatures (17°C+) carry lower implied probabilities due to the absence of strong warm advection or cloud cover that would blunt cooling, while colder outcomes (14°C or below) remain less favored absent a sharper high-pressure ridge or northerly flow shift. Updated guidance expected from official agencies in the next 24 hours could further refine these probabilities as the event window narrows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Paris le 2 août ?
La température la plus basse à Paris le 2 août ?
16°C 50%
15°C 30%
17°C 16%
14°C ou moins 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 août 2026
14°C ou moins
8%
15°C
30%
16°C
50%
17°C
16%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C ou plus
<1%
16°C 50%
15°C 30%
17°C 16%
14°C ou moins 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 août 2026
14°C ou moins
$284 Vol.
8%
15°C
$300 Vol.
30%
16°C
$586 Vol.
50%
17°C
$186 Vol.
16%
18°C
$133 Vol.
2%
19°C
$179 Vol.
1%
20°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$104 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
24°C ou plus
$133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from Météo-France and other agencies currently indicate overnight lows in Paris on August 2 will likely settle at 15–16°C under high-pressure conditions.** These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because they align with the latest ensemble runs showing a stable warm air mass, limited cloud cover, and typical radiative cooling rates for early August. Seasonal climatology supports this range, with historical minimums averaging near 15°C and urban heat-island effects in Paris preventing deeper drops unless stronger advection or clear-sky radiative losses intensify.
Recent model updates have reinforced this consensus by maintaining dry, settled weather with only marginal chances of overnight storms that could alter the minimum. Higher temperatures (17°C+) carry lower implied probabilities due to the absence of strong warm advection or cloud cover that would blunt cooling, while colder outcomes (14°C or below) remain less favored absent a sharper high-pressure ridge or northerly flow shift. Updated guidance expected from official agencies in the next 24 hours could further refine these probabilities as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,229Date de fin
2 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from Météo-France and other agencies currently indicate overnight lows in Paris on August 2 will likely settle at 15–16°C under high-pressure conditions.** These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because they align with the latest ensemble runs showing a stable warm air mass, limited cloud cover, and typical radiative cooling rates for early August. Seasonal climatology supports this range, with historical minimums averaging near 15°C and urban heat-island effects in Paris preventing deeper drops unless stronger advection or clear-sky radiative losses intensify.
Recent model updates have reinforced this consensus by maintaining dry, settled weather with only marginal chances of overnight storms that could alter the minimum. Higher temperatures (17°C+) carry lower implied probabilities due to the absence of strong warm advection or cloud cover that would blunt cooling, while colder outcomes (14°C or below) remain less favored absent a sharper high-pressure ridge or northerly flow shift. Updated guidance expected from official agencies in the next 24 hours could further refine these probabilities as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,229Date de fin
2 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from Météo-France and other agencies currently indicate overnight lows in Paris on August 2 will likely settle at 15–16°C under high-pressure conditions.** These outcomes dominate trader sentiment because they align with the latest ensemble runs showing a stable warm air mass, limited cloud cover, and typical radiative cooling rates for early August. Seasonal climatology supports this range, with historical minimums averaging near 15°C and urban heat-island effects in Paris preventing deeper drops unless stronger advection or clear-sky radiative losses intensify. Recent model updates have reinforced this consensus by maintaining dry, settled weather with only marginal chances of overnight storms that could alter the minimum. Higher temperatures (17°C+) carry lower implied probabilities due to the absence of strong warm advection or cloud cover that would blunt cooling, while colder outcomes (14°C or below) remain less favored absent a sharper high-pressure ridge or northerly flow shift. Updated guidance expected from official agencies in the next 24 hours could further refine these probabilities as the event window narrows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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