The near-certain market consensus against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic stems primarily from the limited scale and containment of the May Andes virus cluster on the cruise ship MV Hondius, which produced only 13 total cases (12 confirmed) and three deaths before being declared contained by mid-June, with no further community transmission documented. Official assessments from CDC and WHO describe general-population risk as extremely low, consistent with hantavirus epidemiology: rodent-borne spillover events rarely sustain efficient human-to-human spread, and Andes virus person-to-person transmission requires prolonged close contact rather than airborne routes. Historical annual global incidence of 10,000–100,000 cases remains localized without pandemic potential, and surveillance through August shows no escalation in case counts or geographic expansion. A realistic shift would require unexpected viral adaptation enabling sustained transmission or undetected widespread seeding from the original cluster.