No hantavirus vaccine has advanced beyond early-phase trials as of mid-2026, underpinning the 94.5% market-implied probability against availability this year. DNA and mRNA candidates targeting orthohantavirus glycoproteins like Gn-Gc have generated neutralizing antibodies in preclinical rodent or primate models and limited Phase 1 safety data, yet no Phase 3 efficacy studies are underway due to the pathogen’s low incidence and rodent-borne transmission. A May 2026 Andes virus outbreak on a cruise ship prompted modest surveillance and funding increases but has not shortened standard multi-year regulatory timelines. Unexpected emergency-use authorization remains possible given evolving outbreak data, though historical precedent for this virus is absent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
6% chance
$129,738 Vol.
$129,738 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
6% chance
$129,738 Vol.
$129,738 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No hantavirus vaccine has advanced beyond early-phase trials as of mid-2026, underpinning the 94.5% market-implied probability against availability this year. DNA and mRNA candidates targeting orthohantavirus glycoproteins like Gn-Gc have generated neutralizing antibodies in preclinical rodent or primate models and limited Phase 1 safety data, yet no Phase 3 efficacy studies are underway due to the pathogen’s low incidence and rodent-borne transmission. A May 2026 Andes virus outbreak on a cruise ship prompted modest surveillance and funding increases but has not shortened standard multi-year regulatory timelines. Unexpected emergency-use authorization remains possible given evolving outbreak data, though historical precedent for this virus is absent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$129,738Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No hantavirus vaccine has advanced beyond early-phase trials as of mid-2026, underpinning the 94.5% market-implied probability against availability this year. DNA and mRNA candidates targeting orthohantavirus glycoproteins like Gn-Gc have generated neutralizing antibodies in preclinical rodent or primate models and limited Phase 1 safety data, yet no Phase 3 efficacy studies are underway due to the pathogen’s low incidence and rodent-borne transmission. A May 2026 Andes virus outbreak on a cruise ship prompted modest surveillance and funding increases but has not shortened standard multi-year regulatory timelines. Unexpected emergency-use authorization remains possible given evolving outbreak data, though historical precedent for this virus is absent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$129,738Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No hantavirus vaccine has advanced beyond early-phase trials as of mid-2026, underpinning the 94.5% market-implied probability against availability this year. DNA and mRNA candidates targeting orthohantavirus glycoproteins like Gn-Gc have generated neutralizing antibodies in preclinical rodent or primate models and limited Phase 1 safety data, yet no Phase 3 efficacy studies are underway due to the pathogen’s low incidence and rodent-borne transmission. A May 2026 Andes virus outbreak on a cruise ship prompted modest surveillance and funding increases but has not shortened standard multi-year regulatory timelines. Unexpected emergency-use authorization remains possible given evolving outbreak data, though historical precedent for this virus is absent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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