Ongoing heatwave conditions across South Korea, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and elevated humidity typical of early August, position 32°C as the leading outcome for Incheon’s daily maximum on August 1, with market-implied odds at 46%. Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble models indicate daytime highs of 31–34°C for the Seoul-Incheon region, consistent with climatological August averages near 31°C but elevated by the current heatwave extending into early August. Recent model runs show limited cooling from possible showers, keeping probabilities concentrated on 31–33°C while capping odds for 34°C or higher at under 7%. Official measurements at Incheon International Airport will resolve the market based on the highest recorded temperature during the 9 AM–5 PM window.