Market-implied odds favoring 26–28°C for Mexico City’s August 2 maximum reflect typical early-August conditions shaped by the North American monsoon, with moderate moisture and subtropical high pressure limiting extreme heating at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Forecast models show daytime highs most often between 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and scattered afternoon convection that curbs peak solar insolation. Recent runs indicate little deviation from the 24–26°C climatological baseline, as no strong heat advection or clear-sky amplification is expected. Trader consensus remains closely split because small differences in cloud timing, rainfall onset, or model resolution can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C, underscoring forecast uncertainty near resolution.