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icon for Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen
Politique·Taïwan

Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen
Politique·Taïwan

Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen

Chen Yu-jen 86%

Li Wen-liang 13%

Liang Wen-tao 2.7%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Chen Yu-jen 86%

Li Wen-liang 13%

Liang Wen-tao 2.7%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Chen Yu-jen

Chen Yu-jen

$1,911 Vol.

86%

icon for Li Wen-liang

Li Wen-liang

$376 Vol.

13%

icon for Liang Wen-tao

Liang Wen-tao

$240 Vol.

3%

icon for Yang Cheng-wu

Yang Cheng-wu

$241 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang nominee and sitting legislator for the Kinmen constituency, holds an 85.5% implied probability due to the party's longstanding dominance in this offshore county and the absence of competitive DPP challengers in recent cycles. Her March 2026 nomination by the KMT Central Standing Committee consolidated support among voters favoring cross-strait stability and local infrastructure priorities, while low probabilities for Li Wen-liang (13%) and others reflect limited organized opposition or polling traction. The election, set for late 2026, features a field of minor candidates with negligible market pricing, underscoring trader consensus on structural advantages for the KMT standard-bearer in this traditional stronghold.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,768
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang nominee and sitting legislator for the Kinmen constituency, holds an 85.5% implied probability due to the party's longstanding dominance in this offshore county and the absence of competitive DPP challengers in recent cycles. Her March 2026 nomination by the KMT Central Standing Committee consolidated support among voters favoring cross-strait stability and local infrastructure priorities, while low probabilities for Li Wen-liang (13%) and others reflect limited organized opposition or polling traction. The election, set for late 2026, features a field of minor candidates with negligible market pricing, underscoring trader consensus on structural advantages for the KMT standard-bearer in this traditional stronghold.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,768
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Connexes

icon for Chen Su-yueh va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Changhua ?

Chen Su-yueh va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Changhua ?

61%
Oui
icon for Tsai Yi-yu va-t-il gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Chiayi ?

Tsai Yi-yu va-t-il gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Chiayi ?

87%
Oui
icon for Hsu Shu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Nantou ?

Hsu Shu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Nantou ?

89%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Chen Yu-jen » à 86%, suivi de « Li Wen-liang » à 13%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 86¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen » est « Chen Yu-jen » à 86%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Li Wen-liang » à 13%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Kinmen » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.