Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a strong position in the safely Republican LA-01 district ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where a candidate needs over 50 percent to win outright and avoid a December runoff. Multiple declared challengers, including fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett, create potential vote fragmentation that keeps the probability of an outright win near even. Trader consensus at 53 percent reflects the district’s consistent GOP performance in prior cycles alongside uncertainty over whether Scalise can consolidate enough support to clear the threshold. Key upcoming factors include candidate withdrawals, endorsements consolidating the Republican field, or polling showing shifts in voter preferences that could push the outcome above or below 50 percent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
54% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
54% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a strong position in the safely Republican LA-01 district ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where a candidate needs over 50 percent to win outright and avoid a December runoff. Multiple declared challengers, including fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett, create potential vote fragmentation that keeps the probability of an outright win near even. Trader consensus at 53 percent reflects the district’s consistent GOP performance in prior cycles alongside uncertainty over whether Scalise can consolidate enough support to clear the threshold. Key upcoming factors include candidate withdrawals, endorsements consolidating the Republican field, or polling showing shifts in voter preferences that could push the outcome above or below 50 percent.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$424Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a strong position in the safely Republican LA-01 district ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where a candidate needs over 50 percent to win outright and avoid a December runoff. Multiple declared challengers, including fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett, create potential vote fragmentation that keeps the probability of an outright win near even. Trader consensus at 53 percent reflects the district’s consistent GOP performance in prior cycles alongside uncertainty over whether Scalise can consolidate enough support to clear the threshold. Key upcoming factors include candidate withdrawals, endorsements consolidating the Republican field, or polling showing shifts in voter preferences that could push the outcome above or below 50 percent.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volume
$424Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a strong position in the safely Republican LA-01 district ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where a candidate needs over 50 percent to win outright and avoid a December runoff. Multiple declared challengers, including fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democrat Lauren Jewett, create potential vote fragmentation that keeps the probability of an outright win near even. Trader consensus at 53 percent reflects the district’s consistent GOP performance in prior cycles alongside uncertainty over whether Scalise can consolidate enough support to clear the threshold. Key upcoming factors include candidate withdrawals, endorsements consolidating the Republican field, or polling showing shifts in voter preferences that could push the outcome above or below 50 percent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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