xAI's rapid release of interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 models in July and August 2026, followed by the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12, has shaped trader sentiment around Grok 5 by demonstrating consistent iteration while the larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a launch, shifting focus to a potential late-2026 debut amid competitive pressure from GPT, Claude, and Gemini updates. Musk's push for monthly foundation models and integration of specialized data like SpaceX workflows add momentum, though post-training timelines and benchmark results could still delay public availability. Key catalysts include the 4.7 rollout and any official confirmation of Grok 5 benchmarks or availability windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$11,225 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre
10%
30 novembre
27%
31 décembre
64%
$11,225 Vol.
31 octobre
$2,047 Vol.
10%
30 novembre
$614 Vol.
27%
31 décembre
$3,487 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid release of interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 models in July and August 2026, followed by the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12, has shaped trader sentiment around Grok 5 by demonstrating consistent iteration while the larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a launch, shifting focus to a potential late-2026 debut amid competitive pressure from GPT, Claude, and Gemini updates. Musk's push for monthly foundation models and integration of specialized data like SpaceX workflows add momentum, though post-training timelines and benchmark results could still delay public availability. Key catalysts include the 4.7 rollout and any official confirmation of Grok 5 benchmarks or availability windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$11,225Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid release of interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 models in July and August 2026, followed by the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12, has shaped trader sentiment around Grok 5 by demonstrating consistent iteration while the larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a launch, shifting focus to a potential late-2026 debut amid competitive pressure from GPT, Claude, and Gemini updates. Musk's push for monthly foundation models and integration of specialized data like SpaceX workflows add momentum, though post-training timelines and benchmark results could still delay public availability. Key catalysts include the 4.7 rollout and any official confirmation of Grok 5 benchmarks or availability windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,225Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...xAI's rapid release of interim Grok 4.5 and 4.6 models in July and August 2026, followed by the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12, has shaped trader sentiment around Grok 5 by demonstrating consistent iteration while the larger 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a launch, shifting focus to a potential late-2026 debut amid competitive pressure from GPT, Claude, and Gemini updates. Musk's push for monthly foundation models and integration of specialized data like SpaceX workflows add momentum, though post-training timelines and benchmark results could still delay public availability. Key catalysts include the 4.7 rollout and any official confirmation of Grok 5 benchmarks or availability windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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