Incumbent Democrat Dave Min faces Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 47th congressional district after both advanced from the June primary. Post-2025 redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the coastal Orange County seat, including areas such as Irvine and Laguna Beach, to a D+6 partisan voter index, with Kamala Harris carrying the district by roughly 10 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s voter registration edge for Democrats. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive balance. A significant late scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected national political realignment, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger to prevail.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-47 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-47 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$3,261 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min faces Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 47th congressional district after both advanced from the June primary. Post-2025 redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the coastal Orange County seat, including areas such as Irvine and Laguna Beach, to a D+6 partisan voter index, with Kamala Harris carrying the district by roughly 10 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s voter registration edge for Democrats. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive balance. A significant late scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected national political realignment, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger to prevail.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,137Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min faces Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 47th congressional district after both advanced from the June primary. Post-2025 redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the coastal Orange County seat, including areas such as Irvine and Laguna Beach, to a D+6 partisan voter index, with Kamala Harris carrying the district by roughly 10 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s voter registration edge for Democrats. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive balance. A significant late scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected national political realignment, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger to prevail.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,137Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min faces Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November 3, 2026, general election for California’s 47th congressional district after both advanced from the June primary. Post-2025 redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the coastal Orange County seat, including areas such as Irvine and Laguna Beach, to a D+6 partisan voter index, with Kamala Harris carrying the district by roughly 10 points in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s voter registration edge for Democrats. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the competitive balance. A significant late scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected national political realignment, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger to prevail.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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