Recent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection générale québécoise : CAQ # Sièges ?
Élection générale québécoise : CAQ # Sièges ?
30 + 47%
25-29 21%
20-24 15%
10-14 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
<5
2%
5-9
8%
10-14
9%
15-19
9%
20-24
15%
25-29
21%
30 +
47%
30 + 47%
25-29 21%
20-24 15%
10-14 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
<5
$511 Vol.
2%
5-9
$917 Vol.
8%
10-14
$2,316 Vol.
9%
15-19
$868 Vol.
9%
20-24
$638 Vol.
15%
25-29
$1,042 Vol.
21%
30 +
$1,573 Vol.
47%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$7,865Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$7,865Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le PCQ remportera-t-il 11 à 13 sièges à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
25%
Oui
Le PQ remportera-t-il moins de 50 sièges à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
27%
Oui
Le PLQ gagnera-t-il 32 à 35 sièges à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
30%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes