**The Polymarket on Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) seat totals reflects trader consensus around modest gains for the party led by Éric Duhaime in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, with the closest probabilities clustered on the 8–13 seat range amid a fragmented five-party contest.** Recent provincial polling aggregates show the PCQ holding steady near 14% support, behind the Parti Québécois (around 28–30%), Coalition Avenir Québec (now tied or close at 23–27% after recent gains), and the Parti libéral du Québec (around 20%). Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the PCQ winning roughly 5–11 seats on average, with ranges extending to 16 depending on regional efficiency, driven by stronger backing in the Quebec City area and parts of Chaudière-Appalaches rather than uniform province-wide strength. This positioning keeps outcomes tightly contested because the PCQ’s vote is geographically concentrated yet vulnerable to three-way races, vote splitting among francophone voters, and the new electoral map. The party currently holds one seat via a recent defector and is targeting official party status (typically requiring around a dozen MNAs). Its platform emphasizes pro-family measures, spending restraint, and regional priorities, with Duhaime campaigning in Bellechasse. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, Quebec City-specific dynamics, or broader realignment among CAQ or PLQ voters could widen or narrow the seat range before polling day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour11-13 25%
8-10 23%
<5 14%
5-7 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
<5
14%
5-7
14%
8-10
23%
11-13
25%
14-16
9%
17+
4%
11-13 25%
8-10 23%
<5 14%
5-7 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 oct. 2026
<5
$1,230 Vol.
14%
5-7
$361 Vol.
14%
8-10
$829 Vol.
23%
11-13
$947 Vol.
25%
14-16
$744 Vol.
9%
17+
$716 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Polymarket on Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) seat totals reflects trader consensus around modest gains for the party led by Éric Duhaime in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, with the closest probabilities clustered on the 8–13 seat range amid a fragmented five-party contest.**
Recent provincial polling aggregates show the PCQ holding steady near 14% support, behind the Parti Québécois (around 28–30%), Coalition Avenir Québec (now tied or close at 23–27% after recent gains), and the Parti libéral du Québec (around 20%). Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the PCQ winning roughly 5–11 seats on average, with ranges extending to 16 depending on regional efficiency, driven by stronger backing in the Quebec City area and parts of Chaudière-Appalaches rather than uniform province-wide strength.
This positioning keeps outcomes tightly contested because the PCQ’s vote is geographically concentrated yet vulnerable to three-way races, vote splitting among francophone voters, and the new electoral map. The party currently holds one seat via a recent defector and is targeting official party status (typically requiring around a dozen MNAs). Its platform emphasizes pro-family measures, spending restraint, and regional priorities, with Duhaime campaigning in Bellechasse. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, Quebec City-specific dynamics, or broader realignment among CAQ or PLQ voters could widen or narrow the seat range before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$4,826Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Polymarket on Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) seat totals reflects trader consensus around modest gains for the party led by Éric Duhaime in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, with the closest probabilities clustered on the 8–13 seat range amid a fragmented five-party contest.**
Recent provincial polling aggregates show the PCQ holding steady near 14% support, behind the Parti Québécois (around 28–30%), Coalition Avenir Québec (now tied or close at 23–27% after recent gains), and the Parti libéral du Québec (around 20%). Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the PCQ winning roughly 5–11 seats on average, with ranges extending to 16 depending on regional efficiency, driven by stronger backing in the Quebec City area and parts of Chaudière-Appalaches rather than uniform province-wide strength.
This positioning keeps outcomes tightly contested because the PCQ’s vote is geographically concentrated yet vulnerable to three-way races, vote splitting among francophone voters, and the new electoral map. The party currently holds one seat via a recent defector and is targeting official party status (typically requiring around a dozen MNAs). Its platform emphasizes pro-family measures, spending restraint, and regional priorities, with Duhaime campaigning in Bellechasse. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, Quebec City-specific dynamics, or broader realignment among CAQ or PLQ voters could widen or narrow the seat range before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$4,826Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**The Polymarket on Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) seat totals reflects trader consensus around modest gains for the party led by Éric Duhaime in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, with the closest probabilities clustered on the 8–13 seat range amid a fragmented five-party contest.** Recent provincial polling aggregates show the PCQ holding steady near 14% support, behind the Parti Québécois (around 28–30%), Coalition Avenir Québec (now tied or close at 23–27% after recent gains), and the Parti libéral du Québec (around 20%). Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the PCQ winning roughly 5–11 seats on average, with ranges extending to 16 depending on regional efficiency, driven by stronger backing in the Quebec City area and parts of Chaudière-Appalaches rather than uniform province-wide strength. This positioning keeps outcomes tightly contested because the PCQ’s vote is geographically concentrated yet vulnerable to three-way races, vote splitting among francophone voters, and the new electoral map. The party currently holds one seat via a recent defector and is targeting official party status (typically requiring around a dozen MNAs). Its platform emphasizes pro-family measures, spending restraint, and regional priorities, with Duhaime campaigning in Bellechasse. Late-campaign shifts in turnout, Quebec City-specific dynamics, or broader realignment among CAQ or PLQ voters could widen or narrow the seat range before polling day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le PQ remportera-t-il moins de 50 sièges à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
27%
Oui
Le PLQ gagnera-t-il 32 à 35 sièges à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
30%
Oui
La CAQ remportera-t-elle 30 sièges ou plus à l’Assemblée nationale du Québec lors de cette élection ?
47%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes