Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 75% implied probability due to his position as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list, which recent polls show ahead with 30-39% support ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 12-32% and Francis Allison (Avanza País) at 8-14%. Legal resolutions by the JNE cleared his candidacy despite challenges tied to his prior mayoral term and senator-elect status, following Luis Rubio’s resignation from the top spot. Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú) and lower-polling candidates such as Ricardo Belmont trail further back amid persistent high indecision. With the October 4 vote weeks away and debates scheduled for late September, traders weigh the frontrunner’s consistent polling edge against potential late shifts in a fragmented field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRafael López Aliaga 75.2%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 20.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 3.0%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.8%
$152,606 Vol.
$152,606 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
75%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
21%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 75.2%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 20.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 3.0%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.8%
$152,606 Vol.
$152,606 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
75%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
21%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 75% implied probability due to his position as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list, which recent polls show ahead with 30-39% support ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 12-32% and Francis Allison (Avanza País) at 8-14%. Legal resolutions by the JNE cleared his candidacy despite challenges tied to his prior mayoral term and senator-elect status, following Luis Rubio’s resignation from the top spot. Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú) and lower-polling candidates such as Ricardo Belmont trail further back amid persistent high indecision. With the October 4 vote weeks away and debates scheduled for late September, traders weigh the frontrunner’s consistent polling edge against potential late shifts in a fragmented field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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