The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a constituency long held by Labour. Recent Camden local elections narrowed Labour’s advantage to 38.8% versus the Greens’ 28.8%, while 2024 general election results showed vote fragmentation that now concentrates behind Polanski following Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement. New Labour leadership under Andy Burnham and the absence of published constituency polling sustain trader uncertainty across the 35–50% vote-share brackets. Campaign momentum on housing, local services, and turnout dynamics could widen separation before nominations close and polling begins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ?
Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ?
35-40 % 24%
50 %+ 20%
45-50 % 18%
40-45 % 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 oct. 2026
<30 %
12%
30-35 %
13%
35-40 %
24%
40-45 %
16%
45-50 %
18%
50 %+
20%
35-40 % 24%
50 %+ 20%
45-50 % 18%
40-45 % 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 oct. 2026
<30 %
$77 Vol.
12%
30-35 %
$76 Vol.
13%
35-40 %
$87 Vol.
24%
40-45 %
$79 Vol.
16%
45-50 %
$116 Vol.
18%
50 %+
$158 Vol.
20%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a constituency long held by Labour. Recent Camden local elections narrowed Labour’s advantage to 38.8% versus the Greens’ 28.8%, while 2024 general election results showed vote fragmentation that now concentrates behind Polanski following Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement. New Labour leadership under Andy Burnham and the absence of published constituency polling sustain trader uncertainty across the 35–50% vote-share brackets. Campaign momentum on housing, local services, and turnout dynamics could widen separation before nominations close and polling begins.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$593Date de fin
8 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a constituency long held by Labour. Recent Camden local elections narrowed Labour’s advantage to 38.8% versus the Greens’ 28.8%, while 2024 general election results showed vote fragmentation that now concentrates behind Polanski following Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement. New Labour leadership under Andy Burnham and the absence of published constituency polling sustain trader uncertainty across the 35–50% vote-share brackets. Campaign momentum on housing, local services, and turnout dynamics could widen separation before nominations close and polling begins.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$593Date de fin
8 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, features Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a constituency long held by Labour. Recent Camden local elections narrowed Labour’s advantage to 38.8% versus the Greens’ 28.8%, while 2024 general election results showed vote fragmentation that now concentrates behind Polanski following Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement. New Labour leadership under Andy Burnham and the absence of published constituency polling sustain trader uncertainty across the 35–50% vote-share brackets. Campaign momentum on housing, local services, and turnout dynamics could widen separation before nominations close and polling begins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti vert obtiendra-t-il moins de 20 % des voix lors de l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?
25%
Oui
Le candidat travailliste remportera-t-il l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras avec une marge de 15 % ou plus ?
28%
Oui
Sagal Abdi-Wali va-t-elle gagner l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?
78%
Oui
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