Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNon 3–6 % 99.4%
Non <3 % 1.0%
Oui 9–12 % <1%
Oui 3–6 % <1%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
29 août 2026
Oui 15 %+
1%
Oui 12–15 %
1%
Oui 9–12 %
1%
Oui 6–9 %
1%
Oui 3–6 %
1%
Oui <3 %
1%
Non <3 %
1%
Non 3–6 %
99%
Non 6–9 %
1%
Non 9–12 %
1%
Non 12–15 %
1%
Non 15 %+
1%
Non 3–6 % 99.4%
Non <3 % 1.0%
Oui 9–12 % <1%
Oui 3–6 % <1%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
29 août 2026
Oui 15 %+
$827 Vol.
1%
Oui 12–15 %
$323 Vol.
1%
Oui 9–12 %
$2,594 Vol.
1%
Oui 6–9 %
$315 Vol.
1%
Oui 3–6 %
$1,117 Vol.
1%
Oui <3 %
$382 Vol.
1%
Non <3 %
$3,391 Vol.
1%
Non 3–6 %
$1,284 Vol.
99%
Non 6–9 %
$424 Vol.
1%
Non 9–12 %
$355 Vol.
1%
Non 12–15 %
$297 Vol.
1%
Non 15 %+
$5,525 Vol.
1%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$16,834Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,834Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La participation au référendum sur les négociations d'adhésion de l'Islande à l'UE sera-t-elle comprise entre 80 et 85 % ?
75%
Oui
Référendum sur les négociations d'adhésion de l'Islande à l'Union européenne adopté ?
1%
Oui
Mary Peltola remportera-t-elle la primaire du Sénat en Alaska avec une avance de 6 à 9 % ?
97%
Oui
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