AfD leads recent Mecklenburg-Vorpommern polls at 35-36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, state election, followed by SPD near 28-29 percent and smaller parties well below. With 71 Landtag seats requiring 36 for an absolute majority, this support level falls short even if minor parties miss the 5 percent threshold and redistribute seats. Trader consensus against an AfD majority reflects these consistent survey trends across multiple institutes through early July, limited recent momentum shifts, and the structural challenge of converting a plurality into a seat majority without broader consolidation or turnout swings. A late surge above roughly 45 percent, unusually high AfD mobilization, or unexpected collapse among competitors could still narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such trajectory within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD leads recent Mecklenburg-Vorpommern polls at 35-36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, state election, followed by SPD near 28-29 percent and smaller parties well below. With 71 Landtag seats requiring 36 for an absolute majority, this support level falls short even if minor parties miss the 5 percent threshold and redistribute seats. Trader consensus against an AfD majority reflects these consistent survey trends across multiple institutes through early July, limited recent momentum shifts, and the structural challenge of converting a plurality into a seat majority without broader consolidation or turnout swings. A late surge above roughly 45 percent, unusually high AfD mobilization, or unexpected collapse among competitors could still narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such trajectory within the resolution window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,363End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD leads recent Mecklenburg-Vorpommern polls at 35-36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, state election, followed by SPD near 28-29 percent and smaller parties well below. With 71 Landtag seats requiring 36 for an absolute majority, this support level falls short even if minor parties miss the 5 percent threshold and redistribute seats. Trader consensus against an AfD majority reflects these consistent survey trends across multiple institutes through early July, limited recent momentum shifts, and the structural challenge of converting a plurality into a seat majority without broader consolidation or turnout swings. A late surge above roughly 45 percent, unusually high AfD mobilization, or unexpected collapse among competitors could still narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such trajectory within the resolution window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$1,363End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...AfD leads recent Mecklenburg-Vorpommern polls at 35-36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026, state election, followed by SPD near 28-29 percent and smaller parties well below. With 71 Landtag seats requiring 36 for an absolute majority, this support level falls short even if minor parties miss the 5 percent threshold and redistribute seats. Trader consensus against an AfD majority reflects these consistent survey trends across multiple institutes through early July, limited recent momentum shifts, and the structural challenge of converting a plurality into a seat majority without broader consolidation or turnout swings. A late surge above roughly 45 percent, unusually high AfD mobilization, or unexpected collapse among competitors could still narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such trajectory within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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