Recent polling shows the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, placing it well behind the AfD at 35–36% while the Linke hovers near 12% and the CDU near 9–10%. These figures, from July Infratest dimap and INSA surveys, point to an SPD seat total in the low-to-mid 20s once the five-percent threshold and seat allocation are applied, consistent with the market’s strongest probability on 22–25 seats. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s campaign has produced modest recent gains for the SPD, yet structural headwinds—including AfD consolidation in the east, weak support for smaller parties, and difficult coalition arithmetic—limit upside. Traders appear to view the current vote-share trajectory as the dominant driver, with limited scope for late swings to push the SPD into the 26–29 or 30–33 seat bands before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22-25 51%
26-29 15%
30-33 10%
18-21 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<18
7%
18-21
7%
22-25
57%
26-29
15%
30-33
10%
34+
1%
22-25 51%
26-29 15%
30-33 10%
18-21 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<18
$602 Vol.
7%
18-21
$251 Vol.
7%
22-25
$1,049 Vol.
57%
26-29
$251 Vol.
15%
30-33
$95 Vol.
10%
34+
$306 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling shows the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, placing it well behind the AfD at 35–36% while the Linke hovers near 12% and the CDU near 9–10%. These figures, from July Infratest dimap and INSA surveys, point to an SPD seat total in the low-to-mid 20s once the five-percent threshold and seat allocation are applied, consistent with the market’s strongest probability on 22–25 seats. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s campaign has produced modest recent gains for the SPD, yet structural headwinds—including AfD consolidation in the east, weak support for smaller parties, and difficult coalition arithmetic—limit upside. Traders appear to view the current vote-share trajectory as the dominant driver, with limited scope for late swings to push the SPD into the 26–29 or 30–33 seat bands before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Volume
$2,553End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling shows the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, placing it well behind the AfD at 35–36% while the Linke hovers near 12% and the CDU near 9–10%. These figures, from July Infratest dimap and INSA surveys, point to an SPD seat total in the low-to-mid 20s once the five-percent threshold and seat allocation are applied, consistent with the market’s strongest probability on 22–25 seats. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s campaign has produced modest recent gains for the SPD, yet structural headwinds—including AfD consolidation in the east, weak support for smaller parties, and difficult coalition arithmetic—limit upside. Traders appear to view the current vote-share trajectory as the dominant driver, with limited scope for late swings to push the SPD into the 26–29 or 30–33 seat bands before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$2,553End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the SPD at 28–29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, placing it well behind the AfD at 35–36% while the Linke hovers near 12% and the CDU near 9–10%. These figures, from July Infratest dimap and INSA surveys, point to an SPD seat total in the low-to-mid 20s once the five-percent threshold and seat allocation are applied, consistent with the market’s strongest probability on 22–25 seats. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s campaign has produced modest recent gains for the SPD, yet structural headwinds—including AfD consolidation in the east, weak support for smaller parties, and difficult coalition arithmetic—limit upside. Traders appear to view the current vote-share trajectory as the dominant driver, with limited scope for late swings to push the SPD into the 26–29 or 30–33 seat bands before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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