The Trump administration has maintained and escalated pressure on Cuba’s energy sector since January 2026 through Executive Order 14380 (oil supply tariffs) and Executive Order 14404 (secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, defense, mining, and financial sectors). The State Department and OFAC have repeatedly designated entities including state oil firm CUPET, GAESA-linked companies, and other energy importers/exporters, with fresh actions in July 2026 targeting additional energy and sanctions-evasion networks plus limited wind-down licenses expiring August 22. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and aim to restrict government revenue while Cuba pursues market-liberalization reforms. Limited February 2026 guidance allowing licensed private-sector oil transactions has not altered the broader tightening pattern, with officials stating new measures will continue to close loopholes. This sustained sanctions architecture, absent major diplomatic shifts or policy reversals, shapes trader assessments of near-term relief announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,696 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
17%
December 31
31%
$46,696 Vol.
September 30
$43 Vol.
17%
December 31
$0 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has maintained and escalated pressure on Cuba’s energy sector since January 2026 through Executive Order 14380 (oil supply tariffs) and Executive Order 14404 (secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, defense, mining, and financial sectors). The State Department and OFAC have repeatedly designated entities including state oil firm CUPET, GAESA-linked companies, and other energy importers/exporters, with fresh actions in July 2026 targeting additional energy and sanctions-evasion networks plus limited wind-down licenses expiring August 22. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and aim to restrict government revenue while Cuba pursues market-liberalization reforms. Limited February 2026 guidance allowing licensed private-sector oil transactions has not altered the broader tightening pattern, with officials stating new measures will continue to close loopholes. This sustained sanctions architecture, absent major diplomatic shifts or policy reversals, shapes trader assessments of near-term relief announcements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has maintained and escalated pressure on Cuba’s energy sector since January 2026 through Executive Order 14380 (oil supply tariffs) and Executive Order 14404 (secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, defense, mining, and financial sectors). The State Department and OFAC have repeatedly designated entities including state oil firm CUPET, GAESA-linked companies, and other energy importers/exporters, with fresh actions in July 2026 targeting additional energy and sanctions-evasion networks plus limited wind-down licenses expiring August 22. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and aim to restrict government revenue while Cuba pursues market-liberalization reforms. Limited February 2026 guidance allowing licensed private-sector oil transactions has not altered the broader tightening pattern, with officials stating new measures will continue to close loopholes. This sustained sanctions architecture, absent major diplomatic shifts or policy reversals, shapes trader assessments of near-term relief announcements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration has maintained and escalated pressure on Cuba’s energy sector since January 2026 through Executive Order 14380 (oil supply tariffs) and Executive Order 14404 (secondary sanctions on foreign entities operating in Cuba’s energy, defense, mining, and financial sectors). The State Department and OFAC have repeatedly designated entities including state oil firm CUPET, GAESA-linked companies, and other energy importers/exporters, with fresh actions in July 2026 targeting additional energy and sanctions-evasion networks plus limited wind-down licenses expiring August 22. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and aim to restrict government revenue while Cuba pursues market-liberalization reforms. Limited February 2026 guidance allowing licensed private-sector oil transactions has not altered the broader tightening pattern, with officials stating new measures will continue to close loopholes. This sustained sanctions architecture, absent major diplomatic shifts or policy reversals, shapes trader assessments of near-term relief announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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