Musk’s posting volume on X typically drops on weekends, with recent trackers showing averages of 18–20 tweets per day versus 30–50+ on weekdays, anchoring the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability. Recent weekly data, including multiple 40–64 or 65–89 resolutions in August, reinforces this pattern amid steady but not explosive activity around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, and political commentary. No major breaking events or high-profile controversies appear scheduled for August 24–26 that would drive a surge into the 90+ range, where probabilities fall sharply. Traders weigh this historical rhythm against Musk’s variable engagement style, where late-night replies or viral threads can still push totals higher, creating the close contest between the top two brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 41%
65-89 34%
<40 13%
90-114 8.4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
<40
13%
40-64
41%
65-89
34%
90-114
8%
115-139
3%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 41%
65-89 34%
<40 13%
90-114 8.4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
<40
$1,411 Vol.
13%
40-64
$652 Vol.
41%
65-89
$325 Vol.
34%
90-114
$425 Vol.
8%
115-139
$982 Vol.
3%
140-164
$1,267 Vol.
1%
165-189
$294 Vol.
1%
190-214
$129 Vol.
1%
215-239
$212 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,017 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Musk’s posting volume on X typically drops on weekends, with recent trackers showing averages of 18–20 tweets per day versus 30–50+ on weekdays, anchoring the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability. Recent weekly data, including multiple 40–64 or 65–89 resolutions in August, reinforces this pattern amid steady but not explosive activity around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, and political commentary. No major breaking events or high-profile controversies appear scheduled for August 24–26 that would drive a surge into the 90+ range, where probabilities fall sharply. Traders weigh this historical rhythm against Musk’s variable engagement style, where late-night replies or viral threads can still push totals higher, creating the close contest between the top two brackets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$6,715End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Musk’s posting volume on X typically drops on weekends, with recent trackers showing averages of 18–20 tweets per day versus 30–50+ on weekdays, anchoring the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability. Recent weekly data, including multiple 40–64 or 65–89 resolutions in August, reinforces this pattern amid steady but not explosive activity around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, and political commentary. No major breaking events or high-profile controversies appear scheduled for August 24–26 that would drive a surge into the 90+ range, where probabilities fall sharply. Traders weigh this historical rhythm against Musk’s variable engagement style, where late-night replies or viral threads can still push totals higher, creating the close contest between the top two brackets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$6,715End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Musk’s posting volume on X typically drops on weekends, with recent trackers showing averages of 18–20 tweets per day versus 30–50+ on weekdays, anchoring the 40–64 bracket as the frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability. Recent weekly data, including multiple 40–64 or 65–89 resolutions in August, reinforces this pattern amid steady but not explosive activity around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, and political commentary. No major breaking events or high-profile controversies appear scheduled for August 24–26 that would drive a surge into the 90+ range, where probabilities fall sharply. Traders weigh this historical rhythm against Musk’s variable engagement style, where late-night replies or viral threads can still push totals higher, creating the close contest between the top two brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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