Recent model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs for agentic capabilities, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol posting strong results on coding and tool-use benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 maintain top leaderboard positions in agentic tasks. SpaceXAI’s rapid Grok 4.6 update, released just days ago, delivered notable gains on APEX-Agents and longer-horizon workflows, narrowing the gap but leaving it behind the frontrunners. Traders see OpenAI as the clearest candidate for second place given its scale, developer ecosystem, and recent infrastructure focus, while xAI’s momentum and Anthropic’s safety-oriented positioning create a tight three-way dynamic. Any new benchmark updates or releases before the end-of-September resolution could quickly shift the market-implied odds in this fluid landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 46%
Z.ai 27%
SpaceXAI 22%
Amazon 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
46%
Z.ai
27%
SpaceXAI
24%
Amazon
18%
Anthropic
18%
Moonshot
15%
DeepSeek
14%
Mistral
14%
Xiaomi
13%
Alibaba
9%
ByteDance
8%
Meituan
8%
Meta
4%
Microsoft
4%
MiniMax
4%
Baidu
4%
Nvidia
4%
4%
OpenAI 46%
Z.ai 27%
SpaceXAI 22%
Amazon 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$95 Vol.
46%
Z.ai
$75 Vol.
27%
SpaceXAI
$75 Vol.
24%
Amazon
$36 Vol.
18%
Anthropic
$36 Vol.
18%
Moonshot
$36 Vol.
15%
DeepSeek
$36 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$36 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$41 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$36 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$36 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$36 Vol.
8%
Meta
$56 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$85 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$36 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$36 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$60 Vol.
4%
$81 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs for agentic capabilities, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol posting strong results on coding and tool-use benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 maintain top leaderboard positions in agentic tasks. SpaceXAI’s rapid Grok 4.6 update, released just days ago, delivered notable gains on APEX-Agents and longer-horizon workflows, narrowing the gap but leaving it behind the frontrunners. Traders see OpenAI as the clearest candidate for second place given its scale, developer ecosystem, and recent infrastructure focus, while xAI’s momentum and Anthropic’s safety-oriented positioning create a tight three-way dynamic. Any new benchmark updates or releases before the end-of-September resolution could quickly shift the market-implied odds in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$927End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs for agentic capabilities, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol posting strong results on coding and tool-use benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 maintain top leaderboard positions in agentic tasks. SpaceXAI’s rapid Grok 4.6 update, released just days ago, delivered notable gains on APEX-Agents and longer-horizon workflows, narrowing the gap but leaving it behind the frontrunners. Traders see OpenAI as the clearest candidate for second place given its scale, developer ecosystem, and recent infrastructure focus, while xAI’s momentum and Anthropic’s safety-oriented positioning create a tight three-way dynamic. Any new benchmark updates or releases before the end-of-September resolution could quickly shift the market-implied odds in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$927End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs for agentic capabilities, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol posting strong results on coding and tool-use benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 maintain top leaderboard positions in agentic tasks. SpaceXAI’s rapid Grok 4.6 update, released just days ago, delivered notable gains on APEX-Agents and longer-horizon workflows, narrowing the gap but leaving it behind the frontrunners. Traders see OpenAI as the clearest candidate for second place given its scale, developer ecosystem, and recent infrastructure focus, while xAI’s momentum and Anthropic’s safety-oriented positioning create a tight three-way dynamic. Any new benchmark updates or releases before the end-of-September resolution could quickly shift the market-implied odds in this fluid landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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