Arctic sea ice extent has tracked well below the 1981–2010 average through mid-August 2026, following a record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers that gave the melt season an early start. Official NSIDC and JAXA observations, combined with statistical models and post-2007 analogs, point to a September minimum centered near 4.5 million square kilometers, supporting the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million outcome at 43 percent implied probability. Persistent low thickness, above-average spring and summer temperatures, and limited cloud cover have favored stronger melt, though the final extent remains sensitive to late-August weather patterns that can still shift totals by several hundred thousand square kilometers. Updated NSIDC daily data and revised Sea Ice Outlook reports through early September will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 16.8%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.9%
<4m sq km 11%
$68,052 Vol.
$68,052 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
6%
4.2-4.4m sq km
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
44%
4.6-4.8m sq km
17%
4.8-5m sq km
6%
5m+ sq km
2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 16.8%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.9%
<4m sq km 11%
$68,052 Vol.
$68,052 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,481 Vol.
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,592 Vol.
6%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,097 Vol.
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 Vol.
44%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,805 Vol.
17%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,475 Vol.
6%
5m+ sq km
$14,474 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Arctic sea ice extent has tracked well below the 1981–2010 average through mid-August 2026, following a record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers that gave the melt season an early start. Official NSIDC and JAXA observations, combined with statistical models and post-2007 analogs, point to a September minimum centered near 4.5 million square kilometers, supporting the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million outcome at 43 percent implied probability. Persistent low thickness, above-average spring and summer temperatures, and limited cloud cover have favored stronger melt, though the final extent remains sensitive to late-August weather patterns that can still shift totals by several hundred thousand square kilometers. Updated NSIDC daily data and revised Sea Ice Outlook reports through early September will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,052End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Arctic sea ice extent has tracked well below the 1981–2010 average through mid-August 2026, following a record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers that gave the melt season an early start. Official NSIDC and JAXA observations, combined with statistical models and post-2007 analogs, point to a September minimum centered near 4.5 million square kilometers, supporting the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million outcome at 43 percent implied probability. Persistent low thickness, above-average spring and summer temperatures, and limited cloud cover have favored stronger melt, though the final extent remains sensitive to late-August weather patterns that can still shift totals by several hundred thousand square kilometers. Updated NSIDC daily data and revised Sea Ice Outlook reports through early September will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,052End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arctic sea ice extent has tracked well below the 1981–2010 average through mid-August 2026, following a record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers that gave the melt season an early start. Official NSIDC and JAXA observations, combined with statistical models and post-2007 analogs, point to a September minimum centered near 4.5 million square kilometers, supporting the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million outcome at 43 percent implied probability. Persistent low thickness, above-average spring and summer temperatures, and limited cloud cover have favored stronger melt, though the final extent remains sensitive to late-August weather patterns that can still shift totals by several hundred thousand square kilometers. Updated NSIDC daily data and revised Sea Ice Outlook reports through early September will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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