Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Warsaw will see persistent westerly flow with showers and cloud cover on September 21, limiting daytime warming while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Expected minimum temperatures cluster around 9–11°C amid 15–16°C afternoon highs and moderate winds, though ensemble spreads allow for either stronger cold advection dropping readings below 6°C or clearer breaks pushing the low above 16°C. This model divergence, combined with the short two-day horizon before resolution, underpins the near-even market split between the extreme outcomes while intermediate bins reflect lower trader conviction in the precise threshold. Updated runs from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of the 21st.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
6°C or below 100%
16°C or higher 91%
9°C 40%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
6°C or below
100%
7°C
38%
8°C
38%
9°C
40%
10°C
28%
11°C
30%
12°C
38%
13°C
38%
14°C
38%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
91%
6°C or below 100%
16°C or higher 91%
9°C 40%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
7°C
$0 Vol.
38%
8°C
$0 Vol.
38%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$0 Vol.
38%
14°C
$0 Vol.
38%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Warsaw will see persistent westerly flow with showers and cloud cover on September 21, limiting daytime warming while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Expected minimum temperatures cluster around 9–11°C amid 15–16°C afternoon highs and moderate winds, though ensemble spreads allow for either stronger cold advection dropping readings below 6°C or clearer breaks pushing the low above 16°C. This model divergence, combined with the short two-day horizon before resolution, underpins the near-even market split between the extreme outcomes while intermediate bins reflect lower trader conviction in the precise threshold. Updated runs from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of the 21st.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Warsaw will see persistent westerly flow with showers and cloud cover on September 21, limiting daytime warming while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Expected minimum temperatures cluster around 9–11°C amid 15–16°C afternoon highs and moderate winds, though ensemble spreads allow for either stronger cold advection dropping readings below 6°C or clearer breaks pushing the low above 16°C. This model divergence, combined with the short two-day horizon before resolution, underpins the near-even market split between the extreme outcomes while intermediate bins reflect lower trader conviction in the precise threshold. Updated runs from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of the 21st.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Warsaw will see persistent westerly flow with showers and cloud cover on September 21, limiting daytime warming while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Expected minimum temperatures cluster around 9–11°C amid 15–16°C afternoon highs and moderate winds, though ensemble spreads allow for either stronger cold advection dropping readings below 6°C or clearer breaks pushing the low above 16°C. This model divergence, combined with the short two-day horizon before resolution, underpins the near-even market split between the extreme outcomes while intermediate bins reflect lower trader conviction in the precise threshold. Updated runs from official agencies will likely narrow the range ahead of the 21st.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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