Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies show a stable post-frontal environment with northeast to east winds advecting cooler maritime air into the New York metro area, limiting daytime heating and supporting a high temperature near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s strong 63.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and 23.5% on 72–73°F. Recent model runs have held steady without major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover that would allow greater insolation or warmer advection. Historical late-September climatology for Central Park places average highs near 75°F, so current conditions represent a modest cool anomaly. Final observations will resolve the market based on the official daily maximum at the primary reporting station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 19?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 19?
70-71°F 51%
72-73°F 34%
74-75°F 10%
68-69°F 8%
NEW
$14,254 Vol.
NEW
$14,254 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
8%
70-71°F
51%
72-73°F
34%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 51%
72-73°F 34%
74-75°F 10%
68-69°F 8%
NEW
$14,254 Vol.
NEW
$14,254 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
61°F or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$421 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$121 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$302 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$3,107 Vol.
8%
70-71°F
$4,985 Vol.
51%
72-73°F
$2,528 Vol.
34%
74-75°F
$2,165 Vol.
10%
76-77°F
$144 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$260 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies show a stable post-frontal environment with northeast to east winds advecting cooler maritime air into the New York metro area, limiting daytime heating and supporting a high temperature near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s strong 63.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and 23.5% on 72–73°F. Recent model runs have held steady without major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover that would allow greater insolation or warmer advection. Historical late-September climatology for Central Park places average highs near 75°F, so current conditions represent a modest cool anomaly. Final observations will resolve the market based on the official daily maximum at the primary reporting station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$14,254End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies show a stable post-frontal environment with northeast to east winds advecting cooler maritime air into the New York metro area, limiting daytime heating and supporting a high temperature near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s strong 63.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and 23.5% on 72–73°F. Recent model runs have held steady without major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover that would allow greater insolation or warmer advection. Historical late-September climatology for Central Park places average highs near 75°F, so current conditions represent a modest cool anomaly. Final observations will resolve the market based on the official daily maximum at the primary reporting station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,254End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies show a stable post-frontal environment with northeast to east winds advecting cooler maritime air into the New York metro area, limiting daytime heating and supporting a high temperature near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s strong 63.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and 23.5% on 72–73°F. Recent model runs have held steady without major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover that would allow greater insolation or warmer advection. Historical late-September climatology for Central Park places average highs near 75°F, so current conditions represent a modest cool anomaly. Final observations will resolve the market based on the official daily maximum at the primary reporting station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions