Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 18 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle potential, and northerly winds advecting cooler, humid air. High humidity and limited solar insolation under overcast skies suppress daytime warming compared to clearer conditions typical for mid-September, when climatological averages hover near 27°C. Minor differences among 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any partial clearing, precipitation intensity, and boundary-layer mixing, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated model runs expected to refine these details ahead of market resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
24°C 40%
25°C 33%
23°C 18%
26°C 8%
NEW
$10,788 Vol.
NEW
$10,788 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
18%
24°C
40%
25°C
33%
26°C
8%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 40%
25°C 33%
23°C 18%
26°C 8%
NEW
$10,788 Vol.
NEW
$10,788 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
$1,379 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$289 Vol.
2%
22°C
$435 Vol.
4%
23°C
$2,612 Vol.
18%
24°C
$1,407 Vol.
40%
25°C
$1,968 Vol.
33%
26°C
$726 Vol.
8%
27°C
$397 Vol.
2%
28°C
$375 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$809 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 18 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle potential, and northerly winds advecting cooler, humid air. High humidity and limited solar insolation under overcast skies suppress daytime warming compared to clearer conditions typical for mid-September, when climatological averages hover near 27°C. Minor differences among 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any partial clearing, precipitation intensity, and boundary-layer mixing, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated model runs expected to refine these details ahead of market resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,788End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 18 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle potential, and northerly winds advecting cooler, humid air. High humidity and limited solar insolation under overcast skies suppress daytime warming compared to clearer conditions typical for mid-September, when climatological averages hover near 27°C. Minor differences among 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any partial clearing, precipitation intensity, and boundary-layer mixing, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated model runs expected to refine these details ahead of market resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,788End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 18 most likely between 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle potential, and northerly winds advecting cooler, humid air. High humidity and limited solar insolation under overcast skies suppress daytime warming compared to clearer conditions typical for mid-September, when climatological averages hover near 27°C. Minor differences among 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C outcomes hinge on exact timing of any partial clearing, precipitation intensity, and boundary-layer mixing, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated model runs expected to refine these details ahead of market resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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