Official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow ahead of a cold front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit daytime heating. Spring climatology for the region shows average September highs near 13–15°C, and current observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range under stable synoptic conditions. The 98% market-implied probability for 15°C reflects strong model consensus and real-time data supporting a moderate peak, though a faster frontal passage or unexpected wind shift could briefly allow readings to edge higher before cooler southerlies arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
15°C 98%
16°C 2%
17°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NEW
$53,295 Vol.
NEW
$53,295 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
98%
16°C
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 98%
16°C 2%
17°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NEW
$53,295 Vol.
NEW
$53,295 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
9°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$449 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$8,133 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$9,974 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$18,728 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$9,102 Vol.
98%
16°C
$4,504 Vol.
2%
17°C
$1,057 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$494 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$399 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow ahead of a cold front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit daytime heating. Spring climatology for the region shows average September highs near 13–15°C, and current observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range under stable synoptic conditions. The 98% market-implied probability for 15°C reflects strong model consensus and real-time data supporting a moderate peak, though a faster frontal passage or unexpected wind shift could briefly allow readings to edge higher before cooler southerlies arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$53,295End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow ahead of a cold front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit daytime heating. Spring climatology for the region shows average September highs near 13–15°C, and current observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range under stable synoptic conditions. The 98% market-implied probability for 15°C reflects strong model consensus and real-time data supporting a moderate peak, though a faster frontal passage or unexpected wind shift could briefly allow readings to edge higher before cooler southerlies arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53,295End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 17, driven by persistent northerly flow ahead of a cold front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit daytime heating. Spring climatology for the region shows average September highs near 13–15°C, and current observations plus ensemble guidance align closely with this range under stable synoptic conditions. The 98% market-implied probability for 15°C reflects strong model consensus and real-time data supporting a moderate peak, though a faster frontal passage or unexpected wind shift could briefly allow readings to edge higher before cooler southerlies arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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