Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a frontal passage over Wellington on September 17, with strong northerlies shifting to cooler southerlies in the afternoon, promoting radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and showers. This setup supports an expected overnight minimum near 9°C, consistent with the market's leading 72% implied probability, while ensemble spreads allow for 8–10°C outcomes amid variable wind speeds and precipitation timing. Historical September climatology shows typical lows around 9°C, but the southerly advection introduces modest cooling potential below baseline without pushing extremes, as current model runs show limited further intensification overnight. Updated guidance from official agencies will refine these probabilities as the front clears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
6°C 82%
7°C 82%
11°C 82%
12°C 82%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
31%
5°C
41%
6°C
82%
7°C
82%
8°C
43%
9°C
72%
10°C
43%
11°C
82%
12°C
82%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
6°C 82%
7°C 82%
11°C 82%
12°C 82%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
4°C or below
$19 Vol.
31%
5°C
$4 Vol.
41%
6°C
$0 Vol.
82%
7°C
$0 Vol.
82%
8°C
$0 Vol.
43%
9°C
$0 Vol.
72%
10°C
$0 Vol.
43%
11°C
$0 Vol.
82%
12°C
$0 Vol.
82%
13°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a frontal passage over Wellington on September 17, with strong northerlies shifting to cooler southerlies in the afternoon, promoting radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and showers. This setup supports an expected overnight minimum near 9°C, consistent with the market's leading 72% implied probability, while ensemble spreads allow for 8–10°C outcomes amid variable wind speeds and precipitation timing. Historical September climatology shows typical lows around 9°C, but the southerly advection introduces modest cooling potential below baseline without pushing extremes, as current model runs show limited further intensification overnight. Updated guidance from official agencies will refine these probabilities as the front clears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$122End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a frontal passage over Wellington on September 17, with strong northerlies shifting to cooler southerlies in the afternoon, promoting radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and showers. This setup supports an expected overnight minimum near 9°C, consistent with the market's leading 72% implied probability, while ensemble spreads allow for 8–10°C outcomes amid variable wind speeds and precipitation timing. Historical September climatology shows typical lows around 9°C, but the southerly advection introduces modest cooling potential below baseline without pushing extremes, as current model runs show limited further intensification overnight. Updated guidance from official agencies will refine these probabilities as the front clears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$122End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a frontal passage over Wellington on September 17, with strong northerlies shifting to cooler southerlies in the afternoon, promoting radiational cooling under increasing cloud cover and showers. This setup supports an expected overnight minimum near 9°C, consistent with the market's leading 72% implied probability, while ensemble spreads allow for 8–10°C outcomes amid variable wind speeds and precipitation timing. Historical September climatology shows typical lows around 9°C, but the southerly advection introduces modest cooling potential below baseline without pushing extremes, as current model runs show limited further intensification overnight. Updated guidance from official agencies will refine these probabilities as the front clears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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