Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a cooling trend for Toronto on September 18 driven by northerly winds and high pressure building behind a frontal passage, promoting clearer skies and enhanced radiative cooling overnight. Projected minimums cluster around 14–16°C, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-8°C and 18°C+ outcomes at equal implied probabilities because short-range models show sensitivity to exact cloud cover, wind speed, and timing of any residual moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 18?
8°C or below 79%
18°C or higher 79%
9°C 39%
10°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
8°C or below
79%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
38%
14°C
24%
15°C
27%
16°C
21%
17°C
39%
18°C or higher
79%
8°C or below 79%
18°C or higher 79%
9°C 39%
10°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
79%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
38%
14°C
$0 Vol.
24%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a cooling trend for Toronto on September 18 driven by northerly winds and high pressure building behind a frontal passage, promoting clearer skies and enhanced radiative cooling overnight. Projected minimums cluster around 14–16°C, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-8°C and 18°C+ outcomes at equal implied probabilities because short-range models show sensitivity to exact cloud cover, wind speed, and timing of any residual moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a cooling trend for Toronto on September 18 driven by northerly winds and high pressure building behind a frontal passage, promoting clearer skies and enhanced radiative cooling overnight. Projected minimums cluster around 14–16°C, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-8°C and 18°C+ outcomes at equal implied probabilities because short-range models show sensitivity to exact cloud cover, wind speed, and timing of any residual moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a cooling trend for Toronto on September 18 driven by northerly winds and high pressure building behind a frontal passage, promoting clearer skies and enhanced radiative cooling overnight. Projected minimums cluster around 14–16°C, with daytime highs near 20–22°C, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-8°C and 18°C+ outcomes at equal implied probabilities because short-range models show sensitivity to exact cloud cover, wind speed, and timing of any residual moisture, which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees. Updated runs from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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