**Trader consensus strongly favors a 24°C high in Chengdu on September 18, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** Multiple weather models and official forecasts, including those from sources like Meteum and regional meteorological services, project a daily maximum of 24°C under mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible and northeast winds around 2–3 m/s. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak near this level before cooling overnight to around 21°C. This aligns closely with September climatology for the region, where highs typically average 25°C but can moderate under persistent cloud cover and higher humidity near 80%. The low probabilities assigned to 25°C or higher reflect limited upside potential from current atmospheric conditions and model agreement. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clearing trend or measurement revision exceeding forecast error margins, though updated guidance from monitoring agencies remains the key near-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
24°C 95%
25°C 5%
26°C 2%
20°C or below <1%
$25,901 Vol.
$25,901 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
95%
25°C
5%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 95%
25°C 5%
26°C 2%
20°C or below <1%
$25,901 Vol.
$25,901 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$539 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$221 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,637 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,146 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,949 Vol.
95%
25°C
$2,750 Vol.
5%
26°C
$2,234 Vol.
2%
27°C
$5,873 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,500 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$357 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 24°C high in Chengdu on September 18, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** Multiple weather models and official forecasts, including those from sources like Meteum and regional meteorological services, project a daily maximum of 24°C under mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible and northeast winds around 2–3 m/s. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak near this level before cooling overnight to around 21°C. This aligns closely with September climatology for the region, where highs typically average 25°C but can moderate under persistent cloud cover and higher humidity near 80%. The low probabilities assigned to 25°C or higher reflect limited upside potential from current atmospheric conditions and model agreement. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clearing trend or measurement revision exceeding forecast error margins, though updated guidance from monitoring agencies remains the key near-term variable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$25,901End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 24°C high in Chengdu on September 18, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** Multiple weather models and official forecasts, including those from sources like Meteum and regional meteorological services, project a daily maximum of 24°C under mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible and northeast winds around 2–3 m/s. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak near this level before cooling overnight to around 21°C. This aligns closely with September climatology for the region, where highs typically average 25°C but can moderate under persistent cloud cover and higher humidity near 80%. The low probabilities assigned to 25°C or higher reflect limited upside potential from current atmospheric conditions and model agreement. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clearing trend or measurement revision exceeding forecast error margins, though updated guidance from monitoring agencies remains the key near-term variable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,901End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 24°C high in Chengdu on September 18, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** Multiple weather models and official forecasts, including those from sources like Meteum and regional meteorological services, project a daily maximum of 24°C under mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible and northeast winds around 2–3 m/s. Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak near this level before cooling overnight to around 21°C. This aligns closely with September climatology for the region, where highs typically average 25°C but can moderate under persistent cloud cover and higher humidity near 80%. The low probabilities assigned to 25°C or higher reflect limited upside potential from current atmospheric conditions and model agreement. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clearing trend or measurement revision exceeding forecast error margins, though updated guidance from monitoring agencies remains the key near-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions