Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 18 project a maximum of 26–31°C under persistent northeast monsoon easterlies and high-pressure subsidence favoring mostly sunny, dry conditions. This underpins the tight market split between 31°C (37%) and 32°C (36.5%), as model runs diverge on peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing from 4–5 grade easterly winds, and afternoon humidity levels near 55–70%. Minor shifts in steering flow or cloud cover could tip the daily high across the 32°C threshold, while historical September maxima in similar regimes cluster around 30–32°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model consensus tomorrow morning will likely resolve the narrow uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
31°C 37%
32°C 37%
30°C 15%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
15%
31°C
37%
32°C
37%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 37%
32°C 37%
30°C 15%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
25°C or below
$739 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$259 Vol.
1%
27°C
$263 Vol.
1%
28°C
$275 Vol.
1%
29°C
$178 Vol.
3%
30°C
$196 Vol.
15%
31°C
$431 Vol.
37%
32°C
$2,141 Vol.
37%
33°C
$417 Vol.
11%
34°C
$367 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$388 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 18 project a maximum of 26–31°C under persistent northeast monsoon easterlies and high-pressure subsidence favoring mostly sunny, dry conditions. This underpins the tight market split between 31°C (37%) and 32°C (36.5%), as model runs diverge on peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing from 4–5 grade easterly winds, and afternoon humidity levels near 55–70%. Minor shifts in steering flow or cloud cover could tip the daily high across the 32°C threshold, while historical September maxima in similar regimes cluster around 30–32°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model consensus tomorrow morning will likely resolve the narrow uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,653End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 18 project a maximum of 26–31°C under persistent northeast monsoon easterlies and high-pressure subsidence favoring mostly sunny, dry conditions. This underpins the tight market split between 31°C (37%) and 32°C (36.5%), as model runs diverge on peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing from 4–5 grade easterly winds, and afternoon humidity levels near 55–70%. Minor shifts in steering flow or cloud cover could tip the daily high across the 32°C threshold, while historical September maxima in similar regimes cluster around 30–32°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model consensus tomorrow morning will likely resolve the narrow uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,653End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 18 project a maximum of 26–31°C under persistent northeast monsoon easterlies and high-pressure subsidence favoring mostly sunny, dry conditions. This underpins the tight market split between 31°C (37%) and 32°C (36.5%), as model runs diverge on peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing from 4–5 grade easterly winds, and afternoon humidity levels near 55–70%. Minor shifts in steering flow or cloud cover could tip the daily high across the 32°C threshold, while historical September maxima in similar regimes cluster around 30–32°C. Updated HKO guidance and regional model consensus tomorrow morning will likely resolve the narrow uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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