**The dominant market consensus at 27°C (99.5% implied probability) reflects official Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming that as the absolute daily minimum on September 16, 2026.** Persistent easterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight temperatures in the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September where the 1991–2020 climatological minimum averages near 23.5°C but recent conditions trended warmer. Real-time station data showed readings holding at or above 27°C through the night before rising during the day amid partly cloudy skies and light rain. Model consensus from preceding days aligned with this outcome, leaving little room for lower thresholds. Only an unexpected late-night radiative cooling event or measurement revision at the reference station could realistically alter the recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
27°C 100.0%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
24°C <1%
$15,891 Vol.
$15,891 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 100.0%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
24°C <1%
$15,891 Vol.
$15,891 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
21°C or below
$188 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$188 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$115 Vol.
1%
24°C
$613 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,248 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,903 Vol.
1%
27°C
$5,640 Vol.
100%
28°C
$1,623 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,172 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant market consensus at 27°C (99.5% implied probability) reflects official Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming that as the absolute daily minimum on September 16, 2026.** Persistent easterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight temperatures in the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September where the 1991–2020 climatological minimum averages near 23.5°C but recent conditions trended warmer. Real-time station data showed readings holding at or above 27°C through the night before rising during the day amid partly cloudy skies and light rain. Model consensus from preceding days aligned with this outcome, leaving little room for lower thresholds. Only an unexpected late-night radiative cooling event or measurement revision at the reference station could realistically alter the recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$15,891End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant market consensus at 27°C (99.5% implied probability) reflects official Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming that as the absolute daily minimum on September 16, 2026.** Persistent easterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight temperatures in the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September where the 1991–2020 climatological minimum averages near 23.5°C but recent conditions trended warmer. Real-time station data showed readings holding at or above 27°C through the night before rising during the day amid partly cloudy skies and light rain. Model consensus from preceding days aligned with this outcome, leaving little room for lower thresholds. Only an unexpected late-night radiative cooling event or measurement revision at the reference station could realistically alter the recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,891End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**The dominant market consensus at 27°C (99.5% implied probability) reflects official Hong Kong Observatory observations confirming that as the absolute daily minimum on September 16, 2026.** Persistent easterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight temperatures in the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September where the 1991–2020 climatological minimum averages near 23.5°C but recent conditions trended warmer. Real-time station data showed readings holding at or above 27°C through the night before rising during the day amid partly cloudy skies and light rain. Model consensus from preceding days aligned with this outcome, leaving little room for lower thresholds. Only an unexpected late-night radiative cooling event or measurement revision at the reference station could realistically alter the recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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