Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high near 31°C (88°F) in Miami on September 19 amid scattered thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 86–89°F. Afternoon convection and sea-breeze timing introduce the main uncertainty: early or widespread storms can limit insolation and cap readings in the mid-80s, while delayed development allows greater boundary-layer heating and pushes values into the upper 80s. Dew points near 24–26°C sustain high humidity that moderates the diurnal range, and light easterly flow offers little additional mixing. Historical September averages near 88.9°F provide context, yet the 45–55% implied-probability band underscores how small shifts in storm initiation or cloud cover can swing the official maximum across the narrow 86–89°F resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on September 19?
Highest temperature in Miami on September 19?
88-89°F 42%
86-87°F 35%
90-91°F 16%
84-85°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
35%
88-89°F
42%
90-91°F
16%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 42%
86-87°F 35%
90-91°F 16%
84-85°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
77°F or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$343 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$236 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$870 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$1,037 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$1,157 Vol.
35%
88-89°F
$1,419 Vol.
42%
90-91°F
$1,540 Vol.
16%
92-93°F
$623 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$268 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$183 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high near 31°C (88°F) in Miami on September 19 amid scattered thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 86–89°F. Afternoon convection and sea-breeze timing introduce the main uncertainty: early or widespread storms can limit insolation and cap readings in the mid-80s, while delayed development allows greater boundary-layer heating and pushes values into the upper 80s. Dew points near 24–26°C sustain high humidity that moderates the diurnal range, and light easterly flow offers little additional mixing. Historical September averages near 88.9°F provide context, yet the 45–55% implied-probability band underscores how small shifts in storm initiation or cloud cover can swing the official maximum across the narrow 86–89°F resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,800End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high near 31°C (88°F) in Miami on September 19 amid scattered thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 86–89°F. Afternoon convection and sea-breeze timing introduce the main uncertainty: early or widespread storms can limit insolation and cap readings in the mid-80s, while delayed development allows greater boundary-layer heating and pushes values into the upper 80s. Dew points near 24–26°C sustain high humidity that moderates the diurnal range, and light easterly flow offers little additional mixing. Historical September averages near 88.9°F provide context, yet the 45–55% implied-probability band underscores how small shifts in storm initiation or cloud cover can swing the official maximum across the narrow 86–89°F resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,800End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high near 31°C (88°F) in Miami on September 19 amid scattered thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 86–89°F. Afternoon convection and sea-breeze timing introduce the main uncertainty: early or widespread storms can limit insolation and cap readings in the mid-80s, while delayed development allows greater boundary-layer heating and pushes values into the upper 80s. Dew points near 24–26°C sustain high humidity that moderates the diurnal range, and light easterly flow offers little additional mixing. Historical September averages near 88.9°F provide context, yet the 45–55% implied-probability band underscores how small shifts in storm initiation or cloud cover can swing the official maximum across the narrow 86–89°F resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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