Recent model consensus and observational trends position 24–25°C as the most likely overnight minimum for Shanghai on September 19, with light rain or persistent cloud cover and northeast winds limiting radiative cooling under high humidity. Official forecasts from multiple sources converge on lows of 23–25°C amid stable subtropical conditions and no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative event. This aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where typical minima hover near 24°C without strong synoptic forcing. Traders have priced in this narrow range as the dominant outcome, reflecting limited downside risk from revised guidance and the proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 19?
25°C 66%
24°C 30%
23°C 6%
26°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
6%
24°C
30%
25°C
66%
26°C
4%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 66%
24°C 30%
23°C 6%
26°C 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
19°C or below
$57 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$508 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$780 Vol.
6%
24°C
$2,209 Vol.
30%
25°C
$2,266 Vol.
66%
26°C
$449 Vol.
4%
27°C
$465 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and observational trends position 24–25°C as the most likely overnight minimum for Shanghai on September 19, with light rain or persistent cloud cover and northeast winds limiting radiative cooling under high humidity. Official forecasts from multiple sources converge on lows of 23–25°C amid stable subtropical conditions and no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative event. This aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where typical minima hover near 24°C without strong synoptic forcing. Traders have priced in this narrow range as the dominant outcome, reflecting limited downside risk from revised guidance and the proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$7,185End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and observational trends position 24–25°C as the most likely overnight minimum for Shanghai on September 19, with light rain or persistent cloud cover and northeast winds limiting radiative cooling under high humidity. Official forecasts from multiple sources converge on lows of 23–25°C amid stable subtropical conditions and no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative event. This aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where typical minima hover near 24°C without strong synoptic forcing. Traders have priced in this narrow range as the dominant outcome, reflecting limited downside risk from revised guidance and the proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,185End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and observational trends position 24–25°C as the most likely overnight minimum for Shanghai on September 19, with light rain or persistent cloud cover and northeast winds limiting radiative cooling under high humidity. Official forecasts from multiple sources converge on lows of 23–25°C amid stable subtropical conditions and no significant cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative event. This aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where typical minima hover near 24°C without strong synoptic forcing. Traders have priced in this narrow range as the dominant outcome, reflecting limited downside risk from revised guidance and the proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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