Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance for London on September 8 points to an overnight minimum near 12–14 °C as the leading scenario, driven by a weakening high-pressure influence giving way to moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiative cooling. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 14–16 °C outcomes because short-range forecasts show the low hovering around this range, with limited scope for deeper cooling under the current steering pattern or for warmer readings if residual cloud or urban heat-island effects persist. Updated runs from the UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will tighten the exact threshold, while historical September minima for the city provide context that values below 11 °C remain climatologically uncommon this early in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 8?
Lowest temperature in London on September 8?
15°C 42%
16°C 29%
14°C 27%
13°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
20%
13°C
24%
14°C
27%
15°C
42%
16°C
29%
17°C
21%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
15°C 42%
16°C 29%
14°C 27%
13°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$198 Vol.
27%
15°C
$129 Vol.
42%
16°C
$464 Vol.
29%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance for London on September 8 points to an overnight minimum near 12–14 °C as the leading scenario, driven by a weakening high-pressure influence giving way to moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiative cooling. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 14–16 °C outcomes because short-range forecasts show the low hovering around this range, with limited scope for deeper cooling under the current steering pattern or for warmer readings if residual cloud or urban heat-island effects persist. Updated runs from the UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will tighten the exact threshold, while historical September minima for the city provide context that values below 11 °C remain climatologically uncommon this early in the month.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$791End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance for London on September 8 points to an overnight minimum near 12–14 °C as the leading scenario, driven by a weakening high-pressure influence giving way to moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiative cooling. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 14–16 °C outcomes because short-range forecasts show the low hovering around this range, with limited scope for deeper cooling under the current steering pattern or for warmer readings if residual cloud or urban heat-island effects persist. Updated runs from the UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will tighten the exact threshold, while historical September minima for the city provide context that values below 11 °C remain climatologically uncommon this early in the month.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$791End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance for London on September 8 points to an overnight minimum near 12–14 °C as the leading scenario, driven by a weakening high-pressure influence giving way to moderate westerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiative cooling. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 14–16 °C outcomes because short-range forecasts show the low hovering around this range, with limited scope for deeper cooling under the current steering pattern or for warmer readings if residual cloud or urban heat-island effects persist. Updated runs from the UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will tighten the exact threshold, while historical September minima for the city provide context that values below 11 °C remain climatologically uncommon this early in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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