**Forecast models currently point to an overnight minimum around 14–16°C for Helsinki on August 31, 2026, with the market’s near-even distribution across 12–16°C reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than any single dominant outcome.** Mild southwesterly flow off the Baltic Sea, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is limiting radiative cooling and keeping temperatures elevated relative to the late-August climatological average low near 12°C. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global models (including recent runs) shows daytime highs near 17–19°C transitioning to nighttime values that bottom out in the mid-teens, with small differences in timing of any partial clearing or wind shifts creating the observed 12–17°C probability band. Because resolution depends on the precise daily minimum recorded at the official station, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model outputs and any 24-hour forecast updates that could shift the lowest reading by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows occasional cooler nights when clearer skies develop, but current conditions favor the warmer side of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on August 31?
14°C 50%
13°C 27%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
26%
13°C
27%
14°C
28%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
14°C 50%
13°C 27%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
$36 Vol.
1%
12°C
$10 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$5 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$50 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently point to an overnight minimum around 14–16°C for Helsinki on August 31, 2026, with the market’s near-even distribution across 12–16°C reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than any single dominant outcome.**
Mild southwesterly flow off the Baltic Sea, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is limiting radiative cooling and keeping temperatures elevated relative to the late-August climatological average low near 12°C. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global models (including recent runs) shows daytime highs near 17–19°C transitioning to nighttime values that bottom out in the mid-teens, with small differences in timing of any partial clearing or wind shifts creating the observed 12–17°C probability band.
Because resolution depends on the precise daily minimum recorded at the official station, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model outputs and any 24-hour forecast updates that could shift the lowest reading by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows occasional cooler nights when clearer skies develop, but current conditions favor the warmer side of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$346End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently point to an overnight minimum around 14–16°C for Helsinki on August 31, 2026, with the market’s near-even distribution across 12–16°C reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than any single dominant outcome.**
Mild southwesterly flow off the Baltic Sea, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is limiting radiative cooling and keeping temperatures elevated relative to the late-August climatological average low near 12°C. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global models (including recent runs) shows daytime highs near 17–19°C transitioning to nighttime values that bottom out in the mid-teens, with small differences in timing of any partial clearing or wind shifts creating the observed 12–17°C probability band.
Because resolution depends on the precise daily minimum recorded at the official station, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model outputs and any 24-hour forecast updates that could shift the lowest reading by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows occasional cooler nights when clearer skies develop, but current conditions favor the warmer side of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$346End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models currently point to an overnight minimum around 14–16°C for Helsinki on August 31, 2026, with the market’s near-even distribution across 12–16°C reflecting genuine ensemble spread rather than any single dominant outcome.** Mild southwesterly flow off the Baltic Sea, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is limiting radiative cooling and keeping temperatures elevated relative to the late-August climatological average low near 12°C. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global models (including recent runs) shows daytime highs near 17–19°C transitioning to nighttime values that bottom out in the mid-teens, with small differences in timing of any partial clearing or wind shifts creating the observed 12–17°C probability band. Because resolution depends on the precise daily minimum recorded at the official station, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model outputs and any 24-hour forecast updates that could shift the lowest reading by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows occasional cooler nights when clearer skies develop, but current conditions favor the warmer side of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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