The weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many jobs added in July?
How many jobs added in July?
50k – 100k 34%
0 – 50k 23%
150k – 200k 18.5%
100k – 150k 11.6%
$12,449 Vol.
$12,449 Vol.
<0
1%
0 – 50k
23%
50k – 100k
47%
100k – 150k
12%
150k – 200k
13%
200k+
10%
50k – 100k 34%
0 – 50k 23%
150k – 200k 18.5%
100k – 150k 11.6%
$12,449 Vol.
$12,449 Vol.
<0
1%
0 – 50k
23%
50k – 100k
47%
100k – 150k
12%
150k – 200k
13%
200k+
10%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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