Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and government 4.5–5% target range, underscores soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and property-sector drag despite resilient AI-driven exports and manufacturing. This latest release has tightened the distribution of market-implied odds across the 3.4–5.5%+ buckets for Q3, reflecting trader consensus on an uneven recovery and uncertainty over the scale of fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Analysts project modest sequential improvement toward 4.6% in Q3 before easing again, with key swing factors including retail sales trends, industrial production, and any late-July policy signals from Beijing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 32%
4.6-4.9% 24%
4.0-4.3% 13%
4.9-5.2% 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
3%
3.4-3.7%
5%
3.7-4.0%
1%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
43%
4.6-4.9%
24%
4.9-5.2%
9%
5.2-5.5%
3%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 32%
4.6-4.9% 24%
4.0-4.3% 13%
4.9-5.2% 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$209 Vol.
3%
3.4-3.7%
$201 Vol.
5%
3.7-4.0%
$219 Vol.
1%
4.0-4.3%
$489 Vol.
19%
4.3-4.6%
$748 Vol.
43%
4.6-4.9%
$3,824 Vol.
24%
4.9-5.2%
$303 Vol.
9%
5.2-5.5%
$209 Vol.
3%
5.5%+
$378 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and government 4.5–5% target range, underscores soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and property-sector drag despite resilient AI-driven exports and manufacturing. This latest release has tightened the distribution of market-implied odds across the 3.4–5.5%+ buckets for Q3, reflecting trader consensus on an uneven recovery and uncertainty over the scale of fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Analysts project modest sequential improvement toward 4.6% in Q3 before easing again, with key swing factors including retail sales trends, industrial production, and any late-July policy signals from Beijing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$6,579End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and government 4.5–5% target range, underscores soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and property-sector drag despite resilient AI-driven exports and manufacturing. This latest release has tightened the distribution of market-implied odds across the 3.4–5.5%+ buckets for Q3, reflecting trader consensus on an uneven recovery and uncertainty over the scale of fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Analysts project modest sequential improvement toward 4.6% in Q3 before easing again, with key swing factors including retail sales trends, industrial production, and any late-July policy signals from Beijing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$6,579End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and government 4.5–5% target range, underscores soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and property-sector drag despite resilient AI-driven exports and manufacturing. This latest release has tightened the distribution of market-implied odds across the 3.4–5.5%+ buckets for Q3, reflecting trader consensus on an uneven recovery and uncertainty over the scale of fiscal stimulus ahead of the October data release. Analysts project modest sequential improvement toward 4.6% in Q3 before easing again, with key swing factors including retail sales trends, industrial production, and any late-July policy signals from Beijing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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